COVID-19

[Crowes]

Where was the “flip flopping “.

Ok, fair enough. He didn't flip flop, he just flat out lied in order to misleda the American public putting them in danger...again which he has admitted to doing. And you believe everything he says, so you should have no problem grasping this 2 pages later.

How did this sqirrrel off to talking like fauci is the only one today saying masks should be required in public

[Crowes]

Or that fauci is responsible for the dysfunctional response from our federal government.

[shel311]

How did this sqirrrel off to talking like fauci is the only one today saying masks should be required in public

That happened when you mentioned a coherent national strategy and voodoo doctors on social media, and I pointed out that part of our "coherent national strategy" was to intentionally lie to Americans and place them in harm's way by telling them masks won't help, then later admitted you lied to them then telling them to wear the masks.

Or that fauci is responsible the dysfunctional response from our federal government.

Here comes the strawman...

[ReignOnU]

Or that fauci is responsible for the dysfunctional response from our federal government.

Did someone say this? Where?

[ReignOnU]

Where was the “flip flopping “.

Ok, fair enough. He didn't flip flop, he just flat out lied in order to misleda the American public putting them in danger...again which he has admitted to doing. And you believe everything he says, so you should have no problem grasping this 2 pages later.

How did this sqirrrel off to talking like fauci is the only one today saying masks should be required in public

Did someone say this? Where?

[Crowes]

Where was the “flip flopping “.

Ok, fair enough. He didn't flip flop, he just flat out lied in order to misleda the American public putting them in danger...again which he has admitted to doing. And you believe everything he says, so you should have no problem grasping this 2 pages later.

How did this sqirrrel off to talking like fauci is the only one today saying masks should be required in public

Did someone say this? Where?

Shellys go to false equivalency debate tactics I reckon.

[shel311]

Shellys go to false equivalency debate tactics I reckon.

The correct answer was no one, no said any of what you asserted.


You made it up, factually speaking.


Pretty awesome the lack of self awareness Crowes has to incorrectly point out a false equivalency by creating a false equivalency

[Crowes]

Where was the “flip flopping “.

Ok, fair enough. He didn't flip flop, he just flat out lied in order to misleda the American public putting them in danger...again which he has admitted to doing. And you believe everything he says, so you should have no problem grasping this 2 pages later.

How did this sqirrrel off to talking like fauci is the only one today saying masks should be required in public

Once again taking a general statement and making it super specific to try make urself look better.....

You do know what a generalization is right?

[GeorgesGoons]

So if we’re not listening to ppl cause they were wrong. Why do you folks listen to Trump? It’s a hoax (wrong). It’ll go away (wrong)

I'm pretty sure we covered the "hoax" line. But to keep it short, he said the hoax was how the democrats/media would use this against him. In context I believe he said this was the "next fake impeachment hoax" or "next fake collusion hoax" Cant remember which as it was already discussed and discredited. But the talking heads on CNN and MSNBC fan the flames to their base who only get their news from the Rachel Madows of the world.

I'm sure it'll eventually go away. Or we'll learn how to better mitigate the adverse effects of the virus, which I believe is happening by the dropping death rate compared to how many people are testing positive.

Is there anywhere they track hospitalizations? I think that is a better way of tracking how this is going now.

[shel311]

Where was the “flip flopping “.

Ok, fair enough. He didn't flip flop, he just flat out lied in order to misleda the American public putting them in danger...again which he has admitted to doing. And you believe everything he says, so you should have no problem grasping this 2 pages later.

How did this sqirrrel off to talking like fauci is the only one today saying masks should be required in public

Once again taking a general statement and making it super specific to try make urself look better.....

You do know what a generalization is right?

Yes, a strawman argument

[Crowes]

Shelly go to debate playbook take a topic being talked about in generalizations then cherry pick one super specific point usually a false equivalency to blunt any further debate chalk up another win on his wall....

[shel311]

We've reached the usual deflecting and dodging from the point part of the thread which seems to always happen with nick and Crowes.

[Crowes]

So if we’re not listening to ppl cause they were wrong. Why do you folks listen to Trump? It’s a hoax (wrong). It’ll go away (wrong)

I'm pretty sure we covered the "hoax" line. But to keep it short, he said the hoax was how the democrats/media would use this against him. In context I believe he said this was the "next fake impeachment hoax" or "next fake collusion hoax" Cant remember which as it was already discussed and discredited. But the talking heads on CNN and MSNBC fan the flames to their base who only get their news from the Rachel Madows of the world.

I'm sure it'll eventually go away. Or we'll learn how to better mitigate the adverse effects of the virus, which I believe is happening by the dropping death rate compared to how many people are testing positive.

Is there anywhere they track hospitalizations? I think that is a better way of tracking how this is going now.

https://covidtracking.com/data
57,369 as of yesterday.
This was at the top of a Google search for hospitalizations so take it as you want.

[nick]

A white houSe report says 18 states are in the red zone

[Crowes]

We've reached the usual deflecting and dodging from the point part of the thread which seems to always happen with nick and Crowes.

No one is deflecting anything your point just has no value except to take the debate super specific so you can chalk up a win for yourself
The conversation started with the general conversation on the approach as a country to face masks.

You dove right in with ur playbook first pick your false equivalency that is comparing fauci with the vodoo doctors on social media.

Secondly you came in with a super specific point about fauic lying that has no value to debate at this point when pretty much every recommendation coming from reputable medical communities is the same on face masks.

[shel311]

A white houSe report says 18 states are in the red zone

I miss football!!!

[GeorgesGoons]

So if we’re not listening to ppl cause they were wrong. Why do you folks listen to Trump? It’s a hoax (wrong). It’ll go away (wrong)

I'm pretty sure we covered the "hoax" line. But to keep it short, he said the hoax was how the democrats/media would use this against him. In context I believe he said this was the "next fake impeachment hoax" or "next fake collusion hoax" Cant remember which as it was already discussed and discredited. But the talking heads on CNN and MSNBC fan the flames to their base who only get their news from the Rachel Madows of the world.

I'm sure it'll eventually go away. Or we'll learn how to better mitigate the adverse effects of the virus, which I believe is happening by the dropping death rate compared to how many people are testing positive.

Is there anywhere they track hospitalizations? I think that is a better way of tracking how this is going now.

https://covidtracking.com/data
57,369 as of yesterday.
This was at the top of a Google search for hospitalizations so take it as you want.

I guess more specifically is how many of the 77000 that were diagnosed yesterday are going to be hospitalized.

So since July 1st we have had 1,064,243 test positive. But we only have 57k hospitalized.

[ReignOnU]

Up a little later than normal tonight because I decided to dive into the COVID19 stats a little. It's been awhile since I've had much of an opportunity to look. I'll do my best not to let my own bias get in the way, because the more I look, the more I'm sliding into the camp of "the media is feeding us a big old dose of scary quantitative data, without context of correlations or comparisons."

Hopefully, over the course of this weekend, I can dive in here and really build a strong database of information. If I can do that, I may be able to put something pretty simple up on google docs or one drive, where you can use a drop down menu to see some different stuff. No promises though, I'm basically handling 2 jobs in the healthcare industry right now and even my weekends change with 1 call/email.

Here's some quick hitters from comparisons between the following dates, 6/1, 7/1 and 7/17. I may jump around a little, but feel free to ask questions and I'll answer them tomorrow after my girls' softball games.

(When I discuss vs other nations, this only includes the top 50 most populated countries, as not to let a 1 off like Qatar mess up data due to small sample size, etc)

- As of 7/17, the US is the 3rd most aggressive country in terms of test per 1m. (UK #1, Russia #2)
- As of 6/1, we were behind Italy and Spain as well and fairly close to Germany and Canada. We pulled well ahead of all 4 since.

- From 6/1 to 7/17, # of tests increased by 164.8%
- From 6/1 to 7/17, # of cases increased by 105.2%
- From 6/1 to 7/17, # of deaths increased by 33.8%
- From 6/1 to 7/17, # of active cases increased by 58.6% (due to 221% more recoveries vs only 105.2% more cases)
- From 6/1 to 7/17, # of Serious & Critical cases decreased by -2.6%

- From 7/1 to 7/17, # of tests increased by 36.4%
- From 7/1 to 7/17, # of cases increased by 38.3%
- From 7/1 to 7/17, # of deaths increased by 9.2%
- From 7/1 to 7/17, # of active cases increased by 29.2% (due to recoveries continuing to out-pace new cases on a % basis)
- From 7/1 to 7/17, # of Serious & Critical cases increased by 4.6%

- You can't subtract the % change in the 7/1 to 7/17 from the other period, so don't try. That's just not how it works.

The above is pretty raw information, here's what I'd say with about an hour gathering it and 30 minutes combined thinking about it and typing this here...

- The death variances relative to cases/tests are great... or NY and surrounding states were just that much of a shit show (this is really the truth when you see they hit over 1.2k deaths per 1m in NY, NJ, MA, CT and RI).
- If I gather all of this daily data, then I also need to find a way to pull out those states.
- The data, when looked at it like this, supports the argument that "we're testing more, therefore we've got more cases."
- But... there's cause for some concern in here. For the larger period, that argument holds water. When you look at 7/1 to 7/17, new cases slightly exceed tests. Now, it's not a major alarm because it's close enough (1.9% disconnect) that it should be watched.
- The decrease in serious & critical over the longer period was a nice surprise. This could be driven by the north east states running into early June though. If you consider the 4.6% increase is in July is included in that -2.6% overall decrease from June, then it seems to indicate that's the driver. I tried to check state level data, but they don't have it posted for these cases, so i just have to assume here.
- Many states opened up either May 1st or roughly May 15th. We saw the death curve take off right at 2 weeks after cases took off and we've held a pretty consistent trend of a 2 week gap in relative movement.

• With that said, if you include a full 2 weeks for incubation/increased spread, add the 2 week gap for the death curve, if we were going to see a spike from reopening, it would have hit no later than mid-June.

• If you want to consider the protests as a pivot point, those ramped up around the 2nd week of June, which would lead to expected spikes
  around Independence Day.

• Deaths relative to that weekend we start around Aug 1.

The plan, time permitting, would be to pull data for every day, at the same time, going back as far as the the inputs are consistent. Then look at testing, cases, deaths and status through % change and # change, for consistent periods (weekly total, day avg weekly, day avg monthly, etc). Depending on how the data is setup, I could create a pretty simple rolling 4 week or 5 week system that would vet out the consistencies in growths, as well as correlation between cases/deaths. All of that would be up to how clean the data formats are. When doing this stuff, that can be the most time consuming thing and time is the 1 factor here that I don't have much of right now. With that said, I'm glad I've taken the time to do this tonight, because it does mostly confirm my hunch so far. More to see though.

TLDR: If you care, you'll go read it or at least skim the bullets. If you want to be a douche, you'll find a way to take something completely out of context. For others... we're testing a shitload and high level, tests go up, cases go up, but deaths and serious/critical haven't went up nearly as much.

[shel311]

This guy on Twitter has been keeping tabs on all of the relevant data.

Just go to his profile and search his media/pics:

https://twitter.com/rdgreid/status/1284 ... 27200?s=19

[ReignOnU]

This guy on Twitter has been keeping tabs on all of the relevant data.

Just go to his profile and search his media/pics:

https://twitter.com/rdgreid/status/1284 ... 27200?s=19

Damn, I follow Silver and hit specifically his Tweets about every 4-5 days. Not sure why I haven't followed the other guy. Thanks Shel, appreciate it.