NDL Forum

We are starting to get to the point where voting is going to really matter. BCS implications are upon us and I just want to make sure everyone knows who they are voting for and why. Don't be fooled my teams or coaches. Lets look at who everyone has played, who they are dogging and who deserves their spot.

Don't be fooled by big team names. I have laid it out here who deserves the rankings and why. I put big emphasis on SOS, who you beat and who you lost to, I downplay conference affiliation and margin of victory. That is my ranking style. This is should be useful for seeing who really has the big wins and played the tough games.

Key: UAR- Uuaww Adjusted Ranking, OWP- Opponent Winning Percentage, TTW- Top 25 wins, Losses- who are the losses and are they UAR

The Undefeated teams:
Alabama (9-0)
UAR: 5
OWP: .300
TTW: None
Analysis: Why are we voting him number one? Yes, he has thrashed opponents but he by far has the weakest SOS of any team in the Top 25, it’s nearly laughable. On top of that, he hasn’t beaten anyone of note yet. He brought it upon himself though, scheduling 3 cupcakes in his OOC.

Stanford (7-0)
UAR: 1
OWP: .464
TTW: 1, Arizona
Analysis: Stanford boasts the best SOS of any of the undefeated teams and plays 3 BCS teams OOC. He has a UAR win to his name in Arizona as well.

Virginia Tech (9-0)
UAR: 2
OWP: .368
TTW: 1, West Virginia
Analysis: His SOS is bad, but not as bad as Alabama. Unlike Alabama his is more due to his conference sucking, not his OOC. He played 3 BCS teams OOC and was rewarded with an UAR win over West Virginia.

The BCS 1-loss group:
Kansas State (7-1)
UAR: 10
OWP: .433
TTW: 1, Boston College
Losses: 1, UAR team Texas A&M
Analysis: He has a big win, but his overall profile is a bit lacking. His loss isn’t bad though.

Connecticut (7-1)
UAR: 8
OWP: .508
TTW: 1, West Virginia
Losses: 1, UAR team Boston College
Analysis: Great SOS, has bunch of good wins, and he marquee win is nice but not fantastic. His loss isn’t bad though.

Michigan State (9-1)
UAR: 4
OWP: .485
TTW: 2, Ohio State and Michigan
Losses: To non-UAR team
Analysis: His season is nearly done but he has shown that he is deserving of this ranking. His loss is pretty bad, but he has two wins vs UAR teams, his SOS is pretty good as well.

Oregon State (5-1)
UAR: 12
OWP: .491
TTW: 1, Arizona
Losses: to non-UAR team
Analysis: Ok overall profile, ok marquee win. Loss was a shocker and he shouldn’t have lost. Probably a team on the decline but still holding fast for now.

USC (6-1)
UAR: 11
OWP: .465
TTW: 1, Arizona
Losses: To UAR team, Ohio State
Analysis: His profile is pretty good, and his loss isn’t bad but may have been overlooked by a lot of people due to late games played. His SOS won’t be getting better as the Pac 10 South is useless. His marquee win so far isn’t that great either.

Louisville (5-1)
UAR: 15
OWP: .479
TTW: None
Losses: Was to non-UAR team
Analysis: His loss isn’t brutal and his SOS is ok but doesn’t have any marquee wins. He has some big games in the future so he has the chance to move up quite a bit but until then he is unproven.

South Carolina (9-1)
UAR: 7
OWP: .466
TTW: 1, Texas A&M
Losses: To UAR team, Miss State
Analysis: Solid SOS, a good loss, top 25 win over a quality team. Def. a top 10 worthy team.

Mississippi State(7-1)
UAR: 3
OWP: .600
TTW: 3, Western Michigan, BYU and South Carolina
Losses: To non-UAR team
Analysis: Not only does he have the 2nd toughest SOS of any UAR team, he has 3 wins against UAR teams and his loss isn’t that bad. His OWP is DOUBLE that of Alabama, isn’t that worth an extra loss?

The BCS 2-loss group:
Texas A&M (8-2)
UAR: 6
OWP: .556
TTW: 4, Iowa State, Kansas State, Ohio State, Oklahoma State
Losses: 2, both to UAR teams, Ohio State and South Carolina
Analysis: I know, you look at the record and see two losses; but no one has proven themselves on the field more than TAMU. He has FOUR top 25 wins AND both his losses are to UAR teams. His schedule has been brutal and we should reward him with that.

Oklahoma State (5-2)
UAR: 21
OWP: .446
TTW: None
Losses: 1 of 2 losses to UAR teams, Texas A&M
Analysis: Identical profile to BYU, no big wins, one of the losses expected, the other not expected. Ok SOS.

Iowa State (5-2)
UAR: 25
OWP: .429
TTW: None
Losses: 1 of 2 losses to UAR teams, Texas A&M
Analysis: Last team in, ok overall profile but just hasn’t done enough, will get the chance with some big games coming up though.

West Virginia (6-2)
UAR: 17
OWP: .406
TTW: None
Losses: Both are to UAR teams, Virginia Tech and UConn
Analysis: His losses aren’t bad ones, but he just hasn’t done anything for wins. His SOS is mediocre as well.

Michigan (7-2)
UAR: 16
OWP: .507
TTW: None
Losses: 1 of 2 losses to UAR teams, Michigan State
Analysis: His SOS is good, and his losses aren’t bad, but he has no marquee wins. Solid team, just hasn’t done enough.

BYU (6-2)
UAR: 22
OWP: .446
TTW: None
Losses: 1 of 2 losses to UAR teams, Miss State
Analysis: Identical profile to Oklahoma State, no big wins, one of the losses expected, the other not expected. Ok SOS.


The non-BCS 1-loss group:
ECU (9-1)
UAR: 18
OWP: .379
TTW: None
Losses: to a non-UAR team
Analysis: He is up here for his shear volume of wins, not his overall profile. The loss is bad, and has no business being in a BCS bowl but deserves a ranking. Game vs UCF will decide which team gets a 15 or so ranking and which team is relegated to the 20s for the rest of the season.

Central Florida (8-1)
UAR: 19
OWP: .387
TTW: None
Losses: to an non-UAR team
Analysis: See above (ECU)

Western Michigan (6-1)
UAR: 24
OWP: .468
TTW: None
Losses: only loss to a UAR team, Miss State
Analysis: Decent SOS, especially for being in a weak conference. His big win isn’t looking so good anymore. His only loss though was expected.

Boise State (6-1)
UAR: 9
OWP: .510
TTW: 1, Air Force
Losses: Only loss to a UAR team, Ohio State
Analysis: His loss is a good one, and has a big win to his name. His SOS is great especially by Boise standards and will only get better with big games upcoming. He appears to be the only non-BCS team that is worthy of a BCS game.

UNLV (5-1)
UAR: 27
OWP: .333
TTW: None
Losses: Lost to non-UAR team
Analysis: Very weak SOS, no big wins, probably won’t survive the bulk of his conference play.

Air Force (7-1)
UAR: 13
OWP: .431
TTW: 1, TCU
Losses: To UAR team, Boise State
Analysis: His SOS is lacking and it is his fault due to SOS, won’t get BCS most likely because of it. His loss is a good one and despite the SOS he has a pretty good marquee win as well.

Other teams of note:
Boston College (6-3)
UAR: 26
OWP: .516
TTW: 1, UConn
Losses: 2 of 3 losses to UAR teams
Analysis: Just too many losses without big enough wins. Solid SOS, but one bad loss in there. Has a big win to his name and may be ranked when the seasons over.

Ohio State (5-3)
UAR: 14
OWP: .703
TTW: 3, Texas A&M, USC, Boise State
Losses: 2 of 3 to UAR teams
Analysis: Yes he has 3 losses, but his SOS is BRUTAL top in the nation. 2 of his 3 losses are against top 25 teams and he has 3 big wins to his name. He def. needs to be considered this high with that kind of profile.

TCU (8-2)
UAR: 20
OWP: .446
TTW: None
Losses: 1 of 2 losses to UAR team, Air Force
Analysis: A lot wins, decent SOS, 1 of the losses isn’t bad. Ok overall profile in a good conference.

Arizona (5-3)
UAR: 23
OWP: .593
TTW: 1, Ohio State
Losses: All 3 losses were to UAR teams
Analysis: All 3 of his losses were against ranked teams, plus he has a pretty good win to his name. The Pac 10 keeps hoping he keeps winning because he is the marquee win for so many teams.

UAR:
1. Stanford
2. Virginia Tech
3. Mississippi State
4. Michigan State
5. Alabama
6. Texas A&M
7. South Carolina
8. Connecticut
9. Boise State
10. Kansas State
11. USC
12. Oregon State
13. Air Force
14. Ohio State
15. Louisville
16. Michigan
17. West Virginia
18. East Carolina
19. Central Florida
20. TCU
21. Oklahoma State
22. BYU
23. Arizona
24. Western Michigan
25. Iowa State
26. Boston College
27. UNLV

nicely done man.

well thought out and pretty fair points all around

DRiccio21 wrote:nicely done man.

well thought out and pretty fair points all around

thanks, this isn't my usual opinioned banter. I really tried to back up all my rankings here. I am sure I will get flak about Alabama, Ohio State and Arizona though.

Uuaww wrote:

DRiccio21 wrote:nicely done man.

well thought out and pretty fair points all around

thanks, this isn't my usual opinioned banter. I really tried to back up all my rankings here. I am sure I will get flak about Alabama, Ohio State and Arizona though.

i don't completely disagree about Bama but ultimately it doesn't matter. if he goes undefeated he'll have done enough to deserve #1, if he doesn't than he won't and it doesn't matter.

DRiccio21 wrote: i don't completely disagree about Bama but ultimately it doesn't matter. if he goes undefeated he'll have done enough to deserve #1, if he doesn't than he won't and it doesn't matter.

True, if he wins out he'll have big wins over Miss State and likely South Carolina. Even if Stanford and V-Tech run the table as well, he'll jump over V-Tech based on SOS for sure. Lose to Miss State though and I drop him likely to 15+

Uuaww wrote:Lose to Miss State though and I drop him likely to 15+

lol. So he should line ups cheeseballs in OOC to make the masses happy? You have some kind of hard on for Bama. Newsflash, some guys are REEEEAL interested in winning a video game football league. He isnt one of them. His goal is to keep Alabama. Some people will compromise their gameplay when shits on the line (crunch time in a game), some wont

ajalves wrote:

Uuaww wrote:Lose to Miss State though and I drop him likely to 15+

lol. So he should line ups cheeseballs in OOC to make the masses happy? You have some kind of hard on for Bama. Newsflash, some guys are REEEEAL interested in winning a video game football league. He isnt one of them. His goal is to keep Alabama. Some people will compromise their gameplay when shits on the line (crunch time in a game), some wont

I understand his goal is to keep Alabama, mine was to make a ranking table. I didn't say he wasn't worthy of keeping Alabama, just that he wasn't worthy of the number 1 ranking.

Oh and their are some great coaches who aren't cheeseballs in BCS conferences

ajalves wrote: lol. So he should line ups cheeseballs in OOC to make the masses happy? You have some kind of hard on for Bama. Newsflash, some guys are REEEEAL interested in winning a video game football league. He isnt one of them. His goal is to keep Alabama. Some people will compromise their gameplay when shits on the line (crunch time in a game), some wont

Oh and thanks for posting! Ripping me is better than ignoring me; coming from you.

BTW, no sarcasm there.

Uuaww wrote:Oh and their are some great coaches who aren't cheeseballs in BCS conferences

thats a fair point.

However, I assume the people he likes to play arent at those schools

Uuaww wrote: Oh and thanks for posting! Ripping me is better than ignoring me; coming from you.

BTW, no sarcasm there.

Just because I post something contrary to what you think doesnt mean I am "ripping" you.

ajalves wrote:

Uuaww wrote: Oh and thanks for posting! Ripping me is better than ignoring me; coming from you.

BTW, no sarcasm there.

Just because I post something contrary to what you think doesnt mean I am "ripping" you.

progress, we're getting there.

A lot of information to wrap your head around here, great work man.

ajalves wrote:

Uuaww wrote:Lose to Miss State though and I drop him likely to 15+

lol. So he should line ups cheeseballs in OOC to make the masses happy? You have some kind of hard on for Bama. Newsflash, some guys are REEEEAL interested in winning a video game football league. He isnt one of them. His goal is to keep Alabama. Some people will compromise their gameplay when shits on the line (crunch time in a game), some wont

I know a lot of guys play the same people in OOC. I know BFIVL plays beefy and crowes every season. I try to do the same thing, I find guys I have played before and that I know play the right way. In conference you are getting probably 4-6 games with guys you have never played before, I see nothing wrong with scheduling guys OOC that you want to play, especially if it is someone you have played for several seasons running.

good read agree with most....not all

autiger730 wrote:

ajalves wrote:

Uuaww wrote:Lose to Miss State though and I drop him likely to 15+

lol. So he should line ups cheeseballs in OOC to make the masses happy? You have some kind of hard on for Bama. Newsflash, some guys are REEEEAL interested in winning a video game football league. He isnt one of them. His goal is to keep Alabama. Some people will compromise their gameplay when shits on the line (crunch time in a game), some wont

I know a lot of guys play the same people in OOC. I know BFIVL plays beefy and crowes every season. I try to do the same thing, I find guys I have played before and that I know play the right way. In conference you are getting probably 4-6 games with guys you have never played before, I see nothing wrong with scheduling guys OOC that you want to play, especially if it is someone you have played for several seasons running.

Agreed Aut. I have had the same 2 OOC coaches regardless of the teams for 10 seasons+ now. I'd rather match up with a rival like that than schedule up or down for ranking sakes. Etc. But what's cool about having so many teams and coaches. There is no real good or bad way to schedule.

Amazing write up btw. Well executed.

FWIW, Crowes has to have the absolute worst luck of any coach this season. I talked to a few other Big 12 coaches and everyone seems to agree that he was one of their toughest games and they were just happy to escape with a win. I think he must be jinxed or something this season.

As for the rankings, very well thought out (and appreciated, coming from TAMU). I do think the Aggies have done great, but we shouldn't be 6, while South Carolina is 7. He not only beat us in the regular season, he knocked us out of the Cup too. Both were awesome games, my squad just didn't have enough in the tank to handle his team.

I agree on a lot of it though. I rebuilt my Top 25 last night and I saw some of the same things you did.

- Alabama hasn't played anyone... yet. With that said, undefeated in a BCS conference is solid, so I kept him up there. (Bama, Stan, VT)
- Ohio State is a tremendous 3 loss team, I think I had them a spot higher @ 13!
- Mich St., S. Carolina and Miss St. are excellent 1 loss teams. I don't think Mich St's upset was as bad as it seems. Wisconsin is going to prove to be a top 25 squad once he settles in. That game was all about MSU losing their offensive timing and tossing something like 4 picks. He has big wins over OSU/Mich, who are both VERY good.
- You have 1 team that I think you're missing, which might skew BYU and a few other teams... and that's Florida State. I graded out BYU higher, because FSU graded out decently as well. (unless I'm overlooking something here)


Well done!

I had myself 8th with Boise St and UConn slighty ahead. USC just behind only due to games unplayed. The last couple of weeks will be intersting.

great write up man, well thought out!

really looking forward to seeing who wins the Week 10: USC/Stanford game

ReignOnU wrote:FWIW, Crowes has to have the absolute worst luck of any coach this season. I talked to a few other Big 12 coaches and everyone seems to agree that he was one of their toughest games and they were just happy to escape with a win. I think he must be jinxed or something this season.

As for the rankings, very well thought out (and appreciated, coming from TAMU). I do think the Aggies have done great, but we shouldn't be 6, while South Carolina is 7. He not only beat us in the regular season, he knocked us out of the Cup too. Both were awesome games, my squad just didn't have enough in the tank to handle his team.

I agree on a lot of it though. I rebuilt my Top 25 last night and I saw some of the same things you did.

- Alabama hasn't played anyone... yet. With that said, undefeated in a BCS conference is solid, so I kept him up there. (Bama, Stan, VT)
- Ohio State is a tremendous 3 loss team, I think I had them a spot higher @ 13!
- Mich St., S. Carolina and Miss St. are excellent 1 loss teams. I don't think Mich St's upset was as bad as it seems. Wisconsin is going to prove to be a top 25 squad once he settles in. That game was all about MSU losing their offensive timing and tossing something like 4 picks. He has big wins over OSU/Mich, who are both VERY good.
- You have 1 team that I think you're missing, which might skew BYU and a few other teams... and that's Florida State. I graded out BYU higher, because FSU graded out decently as well. (unless I'm overlooking something here)


Well done!

Teams I considered adding but didn't were Florida State, Baylor and LSU. All of which I would actually rank above UNLV.

Ohio States schedule is just brutal.

I rank teams weighing heavily in SOS, marquee wins and who they lost to (not in a head to head sense but how bad was it).
The toss-ups I had were: TAMU vs. South Carolina, BYU vs. Oklahoma State (they have the EXACT SAME profile) and ECU vs. Central Florida (luckily they play each other).

Doomsday scenario: Miss State wins out or Alabama/South Carolina loses 1, so does VTech and Stanford. I think the Massey's are going to shit on Vtech. SEC teams profiles will be monsters and one loss will have them overtake Vtech. Stanford will get enough wins from the rest of his Pac 10 schedule to be safe. I think 1 loss SEC team will make it to the NC over Vtech in general. Best case scenario is really Stanford losing, that way it will be really simple.

The BCS will be real tricky this year as well. All 6 BCS conferences have very strong leaders and the Mountain West champion won't make it into the top 6. I am not sure Boise (or whoever) has the profile to be better than any of the Champions. The best case scenario for them is Michigan State losing the Big 10, UConn slipping in the Big East, V-Tech losing the ACC. One of those needs to happen for Boise to make the BCS.