NBA 2012-2013 Thread

[DRiccio21]

k i woke up in bizarro world. my bad!

where do you typically wake up?

[nick]

k i woke up in bizarro world. my bad!

where do you typically wake up?

Toronto, Ontario?

[dakshdar]

when does sample size become not an excuse tho? just curious. I need a concrete number, cause that first cleveland yr he took like 312 shots and he has 383ish this yr.. so if 312 shots isnt sample size then iunno what to tell you. 300+ shots is kinda big tho.

Purely based on what we use with some things at work, when you're comparing something to a base sample lot of ~100 (with an NBA season of 82 games this is reasonable), I'd consider a sample size of 25 to be reasonable.

When you have 100 samples in the full lot, no one sample can greatly skew the results, so it is often a fair average.

So, for NBA, comparing a 20'ish game postseason with a full regular season is reasonable.

His year in Cleveland you're referencing, is that the 2008-2009 season and the 2009 playoffs? He shot 2% better in the playoffs and shot worse from 3 and from the FT line. Is it truly a "better" post season because he score more points? He did it by taking 3 more shots, 1 more 3, and 5 more FTs per game in the playoffs vs the regular season. He didn't perform better in the playoffs, he just shot the ball more.

If you want an example of where sample size works perfectly, look at his career FT numbers. A FT is independent of the team you're playing and, it would appear, largely independent of the magnitude of the game if your name happens to be Lebron James.

Career Regular Season: 6617 FTA, 74.7% made
Career Post Season: 1345 FTA, 74.7% made

[nick]

well lets hope Lebron takes 30 free throw attempts/game then.

[shel311]

I'd consider a sample size of 25 to be reasonable.

Well, he's at 20 career NBA Finals games played.

Nick, fire up some numbers on his scoring stats, do it!!! I'm imagining they scoring production/efficiency is substantially lower than his playoff numbers as a whole.

Hell, before game 4(which he shot well), he was shooting something like 24% in all Finals games from outside the restricted area.

[DRiccio21]

I'd consider a sample size of 25 to be reasonable.

Well, he's at 20 career NBA Finals games played.

Nick, fire up some numbers on his scoring stats, do it!!! I'm imagining they scoring production/efficiency is substantially lower than his playoff numbers as a whole.

Hell, before game 4(which he shot well), he was shooting something like 24% in all Finals games from outside the restricted area.

I still don't get the premise of the debate?

that he's been bad in the finals? I don't think anyone disagrees with that.

if you're taking that and saying that you think that he is suddenly not a good player in the finals going forward, then that's on you. I'll take the rest of his work over 20 games.

but you don't need the extra 5 games to solidify he's been bad in the finals. he's played enough to make that claim already. i'm just not sure what that proves other than reciting history.

[nick]

Cleveland: Vs. San Antonio
4-16, 9-21, 9-23, 10-30 or 35.5%

Miami: Vs. Dallas
9-16, 8-15, 6-14, 3-11, 8-19 or 45.3%

Miami: Vs. Oklahoma City
11-24, 10-22, 11-23, 10-20, 9-19 or 47.2%

Miami: Vs. San Antonio
7-16, 7-17, 7-21, 15-25, 8-22 or 43.6%

161/364 or 44.2% in the finals over his career.

moreso looks like Lebron cant beat San Antonio lol.

I love Lebron, feel bad hating on him. Probably more to do with the fact his superstar team mates are not living up to their billings, but Lebron is the 1B of the NBA universe, so I'd expect greatness to step up in great moments. just me though

[shel311]

I'd consider a sample size of 25 to be reasonable.

Well, he's at 20 career NBA Finals games played.

Nick, fire up some numbers on his scoring stats, do it!!! I'm imagining they scoring production/efficiency is substantially lower than his playoff numbers as a whole.

Hell, before game 4(which he shot well), he was shooting something like 24% in all Finals games from outside the restricted area.

I still don't get the premise of the debate?

that he's been bad in the finals? I don't think anyone disagrees with that.

if you're taking that and saying that you think that he is suddenly not a good player in the finals going forward, then that's on you. I'll take the rest of his work over 20 games.

but you don't need the extra 5 games to solidify he's been bad in the finals. he's played enough to make that claim already. i'm just not sure what that proves other than reciting history.

The question or premise isn't even one that has a specific answer, but it's more why does this happen? Again, this series isn't over yet, but as of today, right now we're at 3 out of 4 Finals where he's been substantially below his normal scoring efficiency.

I don't know the numbers but it would be interesting to see how some of the other greats who played in a ton of Finals have fared in each series and as a whole.

Let me go Lebby on you and take the hypothetical to the extreme to really get to the crux of it, because I don't think we're there yet at 3 of 4, but what if Lebron plays bad in the next 2 games, then over the years goes to 4 more Finals and plays equally bad in all of those(while being normal Lebron in the regular season and rest of the playoffs). So that would make 7 of 8 Finals where he's been pretty bad. I know you like to take emotions and opinions out of it, but at some point you would have to at least entertain the thought that this is a heck of a lot more than a coincidence and something else is in play that's causing this, no?

[shel311]

but Lebron is the 1B of the NBA universe, so I'd expect greatness to step up in great moments. just me though

It's less of stepping up to the moment or whatever and mores just expecting Lebron to be Lebron and have more normal Lebron type games on a regular basis. These weird, unexplainable type stats that keep popping up in the Finals keep piling up on him.

[DRiccio21]

Let me go Lebby on you and take the hypothetical to the extreme to really get to the crux of it, because I don't think we're there yet at 3 of 4, but what if Lebron plays bad in the next 2 games, then over the years goes to 4 more Finals and plays equally bad in all of those(while being normal Lebron in the regular season and rest of the playoffs). So that would make 7 of 8 Finals where he's been pretty bad. I know you like to take emotions and opinions out of it, but at some point you would have to at least entertain the thought that this is a heck of a lot more than a coincidence and something else is in play that's causing this, no?

yeah, maybe he's not that great when playing top competition? maybe when the game slows down and the paint is taken away he becomes a less effective player.

there are lots of things that could be derived from that given your hypothetical.

but I would guess many of those things have already come out and we're just 'noticing' them in the finals. i'm sure if we look at his career vs Boston, Chicago, etc in 'big games' we'd see some similar stuff as to what we're seeing in the finals.

[shel311]

i'm sure if we look at his career vs Boston, Chicago, etc in 'big games' we'd see some similar stuff as to what we're seeing in the finals.

I'm not so sure about that. The Finals, we're at a point where it's more below standard production/efficiency by a good bit. I don't know that you could say there was anything similar against those teams, not on this level.

I mean, the Pacers are the best defensive team in the game and we were talking about how easy getting to the rim was after the 1st quarter of the Spurs series. He was ridiculously efficient against Indy and their great D.

Another thing just perusing gamelogs, it's uncanny the amount of free throws he's gotten in the 1st 3 rounds compared to the Finals in both 2011 and 2013, basically half as many per game as the previous 3 rounds. 2007 wasn't as bad, but still was his lowest FTA/games, so he's had lowest FTA/game in 3 of the 4 FInals he's been in, with 2 of em being big time outliers. That's really no different than me pointing out his scoring woes in the FInals, just thought it was interesting again.

[nick]

didnt Lebron 1 man show Boston when he was with CLeveland? (im asking not being a dick lol)

[shel311]

didnt Lebron 1 man show Boston when he was with CLeveland? (im asking not being a dick lol)

He 1 man show'ed Orlando.

He did have 45 or 48 in a game 7 @ Boston, in a losing cause. I believe it was also Boston that he once played a game that everyone said he didn't try or something like that, and finished with 27/19/10.

Not sure what his overall numbers are against Boston in the playoffs though. I do remember a couple of really bad games in a row to end 1 series.

[DRiccio21]

I do remember a couple of really bad games in a row to end 1 series.

he was horrendous against Boston early on then he went nuts against them.

[shel311]

I do remember a couple of really bad games in a row to end 1 series.

he was horrendous against Boston early on then he went nuts against them.

It was actually 2010, his last 3 games ever with CLeveland.

He shot 7 of 18, 3 of 14, and 8 of 21 in 3 straight losses. It was that last 8 of 21 game though, that he had 27/19/10(and 9 turnovers)

[nick]

k side question for curiosity sake

assuming that Lebron does opt out of his contract next year, what you think the odds are where he goes? I guess use %

Remains a heat 50%?
Goes to CLeveland 25%?
New York 5%?
Los Angeles Lakers 5?
Other 15%?

what u guys think?

[DRiccio21]

purely guessing

Miami 60%
Cleveland 38%
anywhere else 2%

[shel311]

I kinda hope he leaves just to see another huge league shakeup.

Whether it's CLE or LAL or wherever, I just think it'd be cool.

Though it would suck for Dave to lose his season tix to see Lebron and the gang.

[DRiccio21]

I kinda hope he leaves just to see another huge league shakeup.

Whether it's CLE or LAL or wherever, I just think it'd be cool.

Though it would suck for Dave to lose his season tix to see Lebron and the gang.

i'll still have the tix, just not Lebron. bring on the Rony Seikly years!

i'd be happy if we went back to Cleveland. anywhere else i'd be disappointed.

[shel311]

i'd be happy if we went back to Cleveland. anywhere else i'd be disappointed.

I definitely see what you're saying.

But for me, I have no dog in the fight, so just seeing the insanity that would come from Lebron going to, say, the Lakers, would be awesome. It would be year 1 in MIA all over again, or something along those lines.