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jsence2
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

Post by jsence2 »

GeorgesGoons wrote:
jsence2 wrote:Btw, to answer George's question....I don't think Hilary is any better. The reason I have hope in Bernie has not so much to do with his plans....but the fact that he actually LISTENS to people who disagree with him, and engages them. And that is something we have been sorely missing for decades.
If any of you think Bernie is getting the nod in the democratic race you are delusional, obviously no offense meant. But if you think the democrat party will allow that then I'd like what you are drinking. It's the same with Trump and the GOP, but the GOP doesn't have the power to do anything with this freight train that is The Donald.
jsence2 wrote:[

His plans for the economy will plunge us into a recession worse than the one we are fighting to overcome. He wants to increase prices on goods exported to us from China.....and he thinks they'll just take that laying down. They won't. They will increase costs on our goods shipped there, which will lower revenue and cost jobs, while at the same time making us pay more money for items than we do now. It's a double-whammy. And that's not counting how Mexico will respond when he tries to do the same thing with them.

He is going to piss off our allies more than he already has, which will lead to problems for us in numerous areas.

He is going to continue to feed the xenophobia and racial divides that are ripping this country apart at the seams with his rhetoric.

He thinks Congress will simply do what he wants, and they won't. They will fight his stupid ideas, and he doesn't know how to handle being told no.

What kills me is people think "oh, he's a great businessman"--HE ISN'T!!! Can you name me one of his businesses that actually has succeeded that isn't a casino or resort?! I'm terrified for the future of this nation if he's elected.

That said, here's what I think happens--either Cruz or Rubio drop out late, and that person tells his delegates to vote for the other candidate. Isn't supposed to happen, but in this case I think it will. In exchange, said drop-out gets a VP or a cabinet level position promise if other is elected.
So, not to be an ass-hat here but where are you getting these "facts" and please don't say Facebook memes ;)

I'd say he is a great businessman. He has built great wealth. He has also tried to venture out to make even more money and that has bit him in the ass. You can't win if you don't get on the field.

As far as the China comment....how much do we export to China compared to how much we import? I would guess it's peanuts compared to what we bring in. Just a hunch and don't want to look it up as I'm going to bed.

If Rubio or Cruz do that then you'll see the GOP implode. Donald will feel slighted by the establishment and will possibly run as an independent, which will cost the GOP the White House. Or he won't run at all and all the Donald supporters will sit at home like all the Republicans in 2012 when Mitt was the golden boy for the GOP, handing the house back to Obama.

He's a real estate mogul. Everything else has failed. The man owes almost $300m to banks. That's a verifiable fact.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

Post by BFiVL »

I believe Donald has agreed already to support the nominee of the party and said he would not run as an independent
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

Post by nick »

GeorgesGoons wrote:
Must be my stance on gay marriage.
It is out of compassion for Nick, we just want him to be happy with whoever he chooses :lol:
why I oughta
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

Post by shel311 »

Wait, so if Trump loses or realizes he has no shot to win, all he's gotta do is become indepdent, then he can still run for President?

This system, it's so strange.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

Post by nick »

well i think all theyre doing now is battling over who will represent one of the big 2. if u lose u can still go on ur own, probably with less money though.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

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BFiVL wrote:I believe Donald has agreed already to support the nominee of the party and said he would not run as an independent

Considering Trump's history of saying one thing and then saying he didn't say it later on, this is meaningless.

He ditched CPAC today which will hurt him among hardcore Republicans ahead of the closed primaries
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

Post by Uuaww »

nick wrote:well i think all theyre doing now is battling over who will represent one of the big 2. if u lose u can still go on ur own, probably with less money though.
trump did agree that if he did not get the republican nomination then he would not run as an independent. he would effectively kill the GOP of any chance if he did.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

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jsence2 wrote:
His plans for the economy will plunge us into a recession worse than the one we are fighting to overcome. He wants to increase prices on goods exported to us from China.....and he thinks they'll just take that laying down. They won't. They will increase costs on our goods shipped there, which will lower revenue and cost jobs, while at the same time making us pay more money for items than we do now. It's a double-whammy. And that's not counting how Mexico will respond when he tries to do the same thing with them.

I'm not sure that you understand our current trade situation with China. It's basically a 1:4 deficit. Mexico is mostly a non-issue because it's fairly balanced and there are other factors with them that offset it, unlike China.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

Post by Uuaww »

Don't screw around with NAFTA, ever. I am not that well versed on the TPP but I know NAFTA decently and know not to screw with it. The guys who put that one in place no more than I ever will.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

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ReignOnU wrote:
jsence2 wrote:
His plans for the economy will plunge us into a recession worse than the one we are fighting to overcome. He wants to increase prices on goods exported to us from China.....and he thinks they'll just take that laying down. They won't. They will increase costs on our goods shipped there, which will lower revenue and cost jobs, while at the same time making us pay more money for items than we do now. It's a double-whammy. And that's not counting how Mexico will respond when he tries to do the same thing with them.

I'm not sure that you understand our current trade situation with China. It's basically a 1:4 deficit. Mexico is mostly a non-issue because it's fairly balanced and there are other factors with them that offset it, unlike China.

Oh I understand it. I also understand that we take more from them than we provide. Which means if we raise tariffs, they raise tariffs. And then they raise prices, because they know we need them more than they need us. And that hurts us a lot more than it hurts them.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

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This is a great article that breaks it down much better than I can....
How does Trump want to reform relations with China? One big plank is imposing huge tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S., possibly as large as 45 percent. He would also somehow crack down on China’s lax labor regulations and declare the country a currency manipulator, thereby ensuring more fairness in a global playing field in which Americans have lost too many jobs overseas. “Jobs and factories will stop moving offshore and instead stay here at home,” he assures his followers. “The economy will boom.” One study found that the country lost somewhere around 2 million jobs between 1999 and 2011 to trade competition with China—about 10 percent of all manufacturing job losses during that time. But many of those jobs are likely gone for good and have moved on from China to even lower-wage countries like Vietnam and Indonesia.

What tariffs are certain to do is hurt Americans’ wallets. When Trump says the U.S. loses $58 billion to Mexico in trade, he neglects to mention what we get in return for that money: cheap goods. Tariffs on those products would drive up their prices, forcing Americans who are not seeing much in the way of wage growth to spend more for the same things. There was a natural experiment with just this policy in 2009, when the U.S. levied a 35 percent tariff on Chinese tires. That move saved a maximum of 1,200 jobs while it raised costs for Americans buying those tires by $1.1 billion in one year alone.
I might not be the best person at math in the world, but I'm going to go out on a limb and wager the 1,200 jobs saved did not offset the $1.1B additional cost for those tires.
Next, Trump’s tax plan. The candidate declared that his plan would offer the poor and middle class relief while it went after the “hedge fund guys” by changing the capital gains tax rate on investment income. But the details didn’t bear out his big promises. According to the Tax Policy Center, under Trump’s scheme, the poorest fifth of the country would get less than 1 percent of the benefits of his plan over a decade while the top fifth would get more than two-thirds. Yet it would cost $9.5 trillion in revenue—a far larger bite than under Reagan or even George W. Bush. The conservative-leaning Tax Foundation found that Trump’s claim that the plan will be revenue-neutral not to be true “under any scenario.”
So, as I've said all along, Trump will get into office and have the power to enact policies that help his wallet immensely...this being one of them.
Overall, Trump’s prescriptions are pretty pricy: Added altogether, the conservative Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found that his policies would add between $11.7 trillion and $15.1 trillion to the national debt, including interest payments.
So for ShelNotes: Trump wants to decrease tax revenue, spend tons of money on policies that will raise the debt by massive amounts, and will really not help anybody in the lower-to-middle class; in fact, most in those classes will be hurt by these actions. While we are trying to recover from a recession, and suffering from near-crippling national debt. Um.....no thanks

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... ssion.html
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

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jsence2 wrote: He's a real estate mogul. Everything else has failed. The man owes almost $300m to banks. That's a verifiable fact.
not really defending him or choosing sides or anything like that but he could owe banks 10 billion and if that's the only data point you have then it's meaningless.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

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jsence2 wrote: He's a real estate mogul. Everything else has failed. The man owes almost $300m to banks. That's a verifiable fact.
Fuck, I didn't know I was a failure if that is the standard. I owe the bank $220000 for my home and $30 for my wife's vehicle. I should walk across the front line and give myself up to ISIS. :roll:

You listed a lot of things as fact but haven't come out and defended any of them except the China deal. Will have to look that article over
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

Post by GeorgesGoons »

BFiVL wrote:I believe Donald has agreed already to support the nominee of the party and said he would not run as an independent
He also said that if the party didn't screw him over he wouldnt run. If it's a contested convention he may just run as an independent
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

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jsence2 wrote:This is a great article that breaks it down much better than I can....
How does Trump want to reform relations with China? One big plank is imposing huge tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S., possibly as large as 45 percent. He would also somehow crack down on China’s lax labor regulations and declare the country a currency manipulator, thereby ensuring more fairness in a global playing field in which Americans have lost too many jobs overseas. “Jobs and factories will stop moving offshore and instead stay here at home,” he assures his followers. “The economy will boom.” One study found that the country lost somewhere around 2 million jobs between 1999 and 2011 to trade competition with China—about 10 percent of all manufacturing job losses during that time. But many of those jobs are likely gone for good and have moved on from China to even lower-wage countries like Vietnam and Indonesia.

What tariffs are certain to do is hurt Americans’ wallets. When Trump says the U.S. loses $58 billion to Mexico in trade, he neglects to mention what we get in return for that money: cheap goods. Tariffs on those products would drive up their prices, forcing Americans who are not seeing much in the way of wage growth to spend more for the same things. There was a natural experiment with just this policy in 2009, when the U.S. levied a 35 percent tariff on Chinese tires. That move saved a maximum of 1,200 jobs while it raised costs for Americans buying those tires by $1.1 billion in one year alone.
I might not be the best person at math in the world, but I'm going to go out on a limb and wager the 1,200 jobs saved did not offset the $1.1B additional cost for those tires.
Next, Trump’s tax plan. The candidate declared that his plan would offer the poor and middle class relief while it went after the “hedge fund guys” by changing the capital gains tax rate on investment income. But the details didn’t bear out his big promises. According to the Tax Policy Center, under Trump’s scheme, the poorest fifth of the country would get less than 1 percent of the benefits of his plan over a decade while the top fifth would get more than two-thirds. Yet it would cost $9.5 trillion in revenue—a far larger bite than under Reagan or even George W. Bush. The conservative-leaning Tax Foundation found that Trump’s claim that the plan will be revenue-neutral not to be true “under any scenario.”
So, as I've said all along, Trump will get into office and have the power to enact policies that help his wallet immensely...this being one of them.
Overall, Trump’s prescriptions are pretty pricy: Added altogether, the conservative Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found that his policies would add between $11.7 trillion and $15.1 trillion to the national debt, including interest payments.
So for ShelNotes: Trump wants to decrease tax revenue, spend tons of money on policies that will raise the debt by massive amounts, and will really not help anybody in the lower-to-middle class; in fact, most in those classes will be hurt by these actions. While we are trying to recover from a recession, and suffering from near-crippling national debt. Um.....no thanks

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... ssion.html
There are so many holes in the information on the China deal that I'm not going to take the time to hit every one of them, I'll just touch on it at a high level. The tire industry was destabilized the Chinese manufacturing. The data does a 1:1 relationship on production to cost increase (and includes simulation), while ignoring the money spent on non-Chinese manufactured tires to supplement the industry.

Free trade will never be fair if labor standards aren't held to reasonable measures.

As for the time period, that's sampling a specific time period that coincides with China's economic boom, so of course the information is going to look eye-popping.

Right around a year ago I I wrote a large report on the current trade situation with China, the economic development in their country over the last 20 years, their current trends, their labor practices (including information from my own company), the transition of the labor issues from Eastern China to Western China, the infrastructure issues that cause the disconnect from a manufacturing standpoint, the cause and effect that has resulted in similar unsavory manufacturing principles migrating to countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, etc, and it included a look at how China will use their leverage with those companies to operate as middle man in the trade market.

I've got a few stances that I'll waver on when it comes to politics, but our current trade agreements are not among them.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

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GeorgesGoons wrote:
jsence2 wrote: He's a real estate mogul. Everything else has failed. The man owes almost $300m to banks. That's a verifiable fact.
Fuck, I didn't know I was a failure if that is the standard. I owe the bank $220000 for my home and $30 for my wife's vehicle. I should walk across the front line and give myself up to ISIS. :roll:

You listed a lot of things as fact but haven't come out and defended any of them except the China deal. Will have to look that article over

C'mon man, stop w the hyperbole. I don't think you've filed bankruptcy on multiple businesses like he has.

Like I said before....he touts about "American jobs", yet multiple buildings he's been involved with have had documented proof of illegal Polish workers building them. His resorts/clubs in Florida are staffed by numerous people on work visas that he has applied for. His clothing lines are based in China and Mexico.

Trump Airlines, Trump Vodka, Trump University....all massive failures.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

Post by DRiccio21 »

Failing at business isn't always some negative thing. The mentality of failure being a negative is the exact reason why most people never take risk and never achieve abnormal results. Failure is a necessary step in the process of success. Again I'm not a Trump supporter at all but him failing with some of his businesses means absolutely nothing... If anything it's a bit of a statement of his willingness to take risk.

The person who's never failed because they've never stepped out of their comfort zone is far less appealing than someone who has tried and failed, in my eyes anyways
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

Post by nick »

DRiccio21 wrote:Failing at business isn't always some negative thing. The mentality of failure being a negative is the exact reason why most people never take risk and never achieve abnormal results. Failure is a necessary step in the process of success. Again I'm not a Trump supporter at all but him failing with some of his businesses means absolutely nothing... If anything it's a bit of a statement of his willingness to take risk.

The person who's never failed because they've never stepped out of their comfort zone is far less appealing than someone who has tried and failed, in my eyes anyways
ya if i inherited millions id take "risks" too.. if you owe 10 billion to the bank, thats not risk, thats not knowing how to use money apparently.. unless its the norm to be 10 000 000 000 in debt...
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

Post by shel311 »

Wiki has Trump's Dad's estimated net worth at $300mil, and Trump at $4.5 billion.

He must have done a couple of things correctly in his business career.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election

Post by nick »

but like Oliver said thats BS and hes apparently worth 150-250m. I'm guessing his "good will" is "worth" 4B to his companies but thats a made up number.

also you cant owe the banks 10Billion and be worth 4.5 billion..
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