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Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:25 pm
by GeorgesGoons
sixpackdan101 wrote: Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:09 pm
nick wrote: Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:36 pm
ajalves wrote: Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:34 pm
GeorgesGoons wrote: Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:36 pm I'm almost positive Nebraska is one of the first 5 states to open up. Mostly due to the low positive cases and deaths here in the state compared to elsewhere.
wonder why the numbers are low? hmm
Id rather get covid than live in Nebraska
We’d rather you get Covid than live here too 😂
I was too busy eating wings to respond. Thanks for typing what I was thinking. :D

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:03 am
by ReignOnU
shel311 wrote: Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:31 pm NDL:O - Let us know what the outside work is like in May.
Governor Mike DeWine
@GovMikeDeWine
I am an optimist and am confident that Ohioans will also live up to the challenge of doing things differently as we open back up beginning on May 1st.
Still doesn't make sense to me. Don't get me wrong, I've been saying that I'd like to see a go forward plan. So this is a step in that direction. But I'd like to hear the answer to how states like NY, PA, MI, and IN impact us when this happens.

I'm fairly certain that even if we open up things in May, that the most I'd be in my office in May is for a few days between the 6th and 15th.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:06 am
by ReignOnU
ajalves wrote: Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:45 pm states talking about opening schools back up in 2 weeks isn't a wise move IMO
Agreed. There's no reason that we shouldn't finish the year school year up remotely.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:10 am
by ReignOnU
Cnasty wrote: Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:05 pm "Opening Up America Again" Plan

Plan that is being discussed on May 1st recommended to state governors from President and “governors call their own shot”...completely different then he is the end all be all authoritarian.

14 straight days of declining new cases required to get to phase 1.

Phase 1
"Vulnerable" people shelter in place
Schools stay close
Restaurants can be open under very "strict guidelines", Bars closed
Gyms reopen-very strict distancing
No more then 10 people in a gathering
Minimize non-essential travel

Phase 2
Same for vulnerable
Encourage telework, some workers return in phases
Schools reopen
No more then 50 people gathering
Non-essential travel can resume
Bars open, same restaurant

Phase 3
No restrictions on workplace
Limit physical distancing and sanitation "protocols"

This is very very gray but its something
Thanks for posting. I was tied up last night and didn't follow what was going on.

I assume they were vague on the 14 straight days piece... as in, if it's linear or literally 14 straight. Also, that can kind of be misguided by testing, but I guess that's the best they can go with. I feel like there needs to be an additional 2 weeks in between the phases, before restarting the 14 day count to get to the next phase. Depending on the incubation period and timeline for phases to start once they are allowed, going phase 1, then 14 days later to phase 2 could be a big issue, because we really haven't seen the impact of phase 1.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:47 am
by ReignOnU
I've got a love/hate relationship with Nate Silver... but his tweets and data have been pretty solid throughout. Definitely recommend following/reading.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:53 am
by ReignOnU
Nick... similar to your post about the known lung issue sample... here is a test of 3,000 in Santa Clara County, recruited via target Facebook adds, over a 2 day period in early April.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20062463v1
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:58 am
by Weasel
ReignOnU wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:53 am 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.
Without even knowing what the confirmed cases are, Im going to guess that they mean 50-85 times, not fold. A 50-85 fold increase in anything would be an astronomical number

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:00 pm
by nick
fold is exponential no?

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:04 pm
by ReignOnU
Weasel wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:58 am
ReignOnU wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:53 am 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.
Without even knowing what the confirmed cases are, Im going to guess that they mean 50-85 times, not fold. A 50-85 fold increase in anything would be an astronomical number
Fold means times, multiple. Not exponential.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:07 pm
by ReignOnU
https://twitter.com/Avik/status/1250482413978992641
Under the CARES Act, hospitals get paid 15% more by Medicare if they classify their patients as having “a principal or secondary diagnosis of COVID-19.” Get ready for every hospital in America to pass off everyday coughing as “suspected COVID-19.”
You get corona! You get corona! You get corona!

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:12 pm
by Weasel
ReignOnU wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:04 pm
Weasel wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:58 am
ReignOnU wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:53 am 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.
Without even knowing what the confirmed cases are, Im going to guess that they mean 50-85 times, not fold. A 50-85 fold increase in anything would be an astronomical number
Fold means times, multiple. Not exponential.
I stand corrected. I always learned it to mean exponential, as in a two fold increase to equal a four times increase. Looked it up, I was wrong apparently.

EDIT: Scratch that, I guess we're both right
In the field of genomics (and more generally in bioinformatics), the modern usage is to define fold change in terms of ratios, and not by the alternative definition.[9][10]

However, log-ratios are often used for analysis and visualization of fold changes. The logarithm to base 2 is most commonly used,[9][10] as it is easy to interpret, e.g. a doubling in the original scaling is equal to a log2 fold change of 1, a quadrupling is equal to a log2 fold change of 2 and so on.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:22 pm
by GeorgesGoons
ReignOnU wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:07 pm https://twitter.com/Avik/status/1250482413978992641
Under the CARES Act, hospitals get paid 15% more by Medicare if they classify their patients as having “a principal or secondary diagnosis of COVID-19.” Get ready for every hospital in America to pass off everyday coughing as “suspected COVID-19.”
You get corona! You get corona! You get corona!
Sounds like my conspiracy theory may be correct.
There is a headline news article that quotes Mayor DeBlasio that most of these deaths were in long term facilities. Without testing what is the purpose of inflating numbers that cannot be verified? There has to be a motive behind this.

Conspiracy theory forthcoming:
The cities and states get more federal money for healthcare upgrades with the extra deaths?

I would hope that's not the case but can see some logic to it if the numbers line up. Anyone know of a website to follow the money?

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:35 pm
by nick
or maybe it's cause theyre dying of covid..

conspriacy theory :lol: .. Joe Rogan was right when he said the only people who actually believe in conspiracy theories are old white people

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:50 pm
by dakshdar
GeorgesGoons wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:22 pm
ReignOnU wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:07 pm https://twitter.com/Avik/status/1250482413978992641
Under the CARES Act, hospitals get paid 15% more by Medicare if they classify their patients as having “a principal or secondary diagnosis of COVID-19.” Get ready for every hospital in America to pass off everyday coughing as “suspected COVID-19.”
You get corona! You get corona! You get corona!
Sounds like my conspiracy theory may be correct.
There is a headline news article that quotes Mayor DeBlasio that most of these deaths were in long term facilities. Without testing what is the purpose of inflating numbers that cannot be verified? There has to be a motive behind this.

Conspiracy theory forthcoming:
The cities and states get more federal money for healthcare upgrades with the extra deaths?

I would hope that's not the case but can see some logic to it if the numbers line up. Anyone know of a website to follow the money?
Yes, the cities and states are overstating their COVID cases to defraud the Federal government... at the direction of the CDC/Federal Gov't. We've been over this already!

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:50 pm
by shel311
nick wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:35 pm or maybe it's cause theyre dying of covid..
If only there was some way to find out if people have this virus...

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:32 pm
by Cnasty
Texas has officially closed all schools for the rest of the year.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:34 pm
by dakshdar
shel311 wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:50 pm
nick wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:35 pm or maybe it's cause theyre dying of covid..
If only there was some way to find out if people have this virus...
But you aren't going to use a test on someone that is already dead are you?

Instead, you go with a doctor/medical professional stating the individual had symptoms before death consistent with COVID-19 and you move on.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:38 pm
by Weasel
Cnasty wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:32 pm Texas has officially closed all schools for the rest of the year.
School year? Or rest of 2020? Michigan made the same call a while back

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:39 pm
by Cnasty
School year with a pending evaluation of current status when the new school year comes up.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:41 pm
by dakshdar
Ignore the attention grabbing headline, no one is actually getting a $1.7 million stimulus check, but this still seems like a pretty shitty thing to have ended up in the stimulus plan:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/shaharziv/ ... 46bf42665b

Changing a tax limitation for this year that will result in a $90B difference in taxes where $74B of that benefit will be seen by people making over $1M - shady?