NDL Forum

Cnasty wrote:

shel311 wrote:

wdoupis wrote:

shel311 wrote:Is it THAT crazy for me to think Richmond is not better than Sheltown?

Boston'ed!!!

Boston 6-1 vs Richmond...extrapolate that to a whole season in the same division like Sheltown
Boston 16-3 vs Sheltown

Doing some adjustments:

97 wins for Richmond...turn 16 of those into losses....81 wins
71 wins for Sheltown...turn 16 of those into wins....86 wins

I am not supposed to choose sides here but it sure is fun!!!

Now instead of 97 and 71, do it by run diff.

In fairness, not sure your assumptions are correct. I don't think you can add 16 wins for me. Instead of 3-16, if you add a random team I'm probably closer to 10-9...

I did it like this.

Sheltown 79 wins pythag. 3-16 vs Boston. Sub out Boston and in an average team, add 7 wins, gets me to 86 ish.

Richmond 96 wins pythag. Take out his 10-9 vs Philly and give him 19 vs BOS. As you said, he was 1-6, so i think 3-16 is fair. So subtract 7 wins gets him to 89 ish



Boston Effect!!!

I feel like dak needs to weigh in on this. I just think he'd have a good algorithm for figuring out the records.

That still makes no sense. Assuming Sheltown wins all 16 games, that's a 0% chance. A more reasonable way to do this is say Sheltown was in a non Boston division. He still plays Boston 7 times. Let's say he goes 1-6 like I did. Now, in those remaining 12 games 6-6. So in these 19 games he gets 7 wins instead of 3. That's a 4 win improvement. Congrats on your 75 win team and being 21 games behind me.

i would of had 78 wins if i wasnt in the AL East cause I wouldn't of faced Sheltown 18 times

So much math!!!!!

I need a nick colored coded excel spreadsheet...STAT!

nick wrote:i would of had 78 wins if i wasnt in the AL East cause I wouldn't of faced Sheltown 18 times

19

nick wrote:i would of had 78 wins if i wasnt in the AL East cause I wouldn't of faced Sheltown 18 times

You'd have the 13th pick then in the upcoming draft. Damn Sheltown ruined your chances at a decent pick.

I've had the worst pythag in the game 2 out of the past 4 years(-25 pythag in those 4 seasons). Though this season with no shot at the playoffs, it worked in my favor.

San Fran/Cincy still holding strong with the best win percentage in our history at .634

Boston moves into 2nd over the Crabs at .578

Boston all time wins: 2354-1534
NorCal all time wins: 1489-1267

Cnasty wrote:San Fran/Cincy still holding strong with the best win percentage in our history at .634

Boston moves into 2nd over the Crabs at .578

Boston all time wins: 2354-1534
NorCal all time wins: 1489-1267

wants to send some dividend checks to Los Angeles #oldnorcalowner

Just for AJ:

AL
Miami over Tampa, 3-1
WF over Philly, 3-2

Boston over Miami, 4-2
Richmond over WF, 4-2

Boston over Richmond, 4-3

NL
PO over Albany, 3-2
Washington over OCD, 3-2

PO over STC, 4-3
Washington over Bama, 4-2

Washington over PO, 4-2

Boston over Washington, 4-3

I really tried to pick against myself but with this rotation and lineup, I just can't.

But as we know, playoffs are cray cray.

Boston wins, no other team wins more than 1 game against them.


You're welcome non-Boston playoff teams!

"If we can't win with this team, I am not sure if we will ever win a ring again"

-Corey....every year we don't win.

shel311 wrote:Boston wins, no other team wins more than 1 game against them.


You're welcome non-Boston playoff teams!

That's what we said last year...... Greeks in 7

Miami is winning it all.

nick wrote:Miami is winning it all.

Honestly would not shock me.

The playoffs are such a crap shoot you never know which makes it a can't miss night!

2x champ before Shel wins one. Gonna be a good night

I thought there was an asterisk on your first title since the new commish didn't give reign a chance to make changes on his team and i pressed sim instead of real time sim?

Wasted Memory wrote:I feel like dak needs to weigh in on this. I just think he'd have a good algorithm for figuring out the records.

It's difficult to project anyone's small series set (6-7 games) against Boston to a larger 18-19 game set.

For anyone that played a lot against Boston and would drop to a smaller number of games, you can similarly have disparities for small sets. So someone that was 4-14 against Boston (0.222 winning pct) could just as easily be 3-4 against them in two series.

As for how someone would perform against the league in general with removing 18 games against Boston and getting 18 games against other teams - your best option may be removing all runs scored and runs against for Boston games from their 162 game set and determining their resulting run differential (and extrapolate it back to a 162 game sample size). I would think there is a reasonable method of determining their record over those 18 games based on run differential when you compare that differential to other teams with similar differentials around the league and their winning %s as well.

Completely moving divisions is a gargantuan analysis. I would probably start by checking the teams winning % against teams above 0.500 and below 0.500 and then determining how many teams in their new division meet those criteria. That could get you an estimate of their division record and intra-division records depending on conference. You would most likely also need to introduce some randomness to the algorithm and flip the bit on a few 1s and 0s to match baseball reality. So, just because a team may have a 0.66 winning pct against other teams that are below .500, you wouldn't make every 3 game set be a 2-1 W v L for them. You sprinkle in a 1-2 series 10% of the time, or something along those lines.

And then you realize it's OOTP baseball and crumple up all the math and throw it away. It's won by digital hearts bursting out of digital chests while unseen fans cry 1s and 0s and hug in the nonexistent stands when their team from 33 years in the future wins it all.

dakshdar wrote:And then you realize it's OOTP baseball and crumple up all the math and throw it away.

Corey, AJ and I have talked more about the chemistry/rhythm or just the idea of a couple of winning sims seems to bring about more winning, so there could be something to the idea of getting 6 series against Boston throughout the season and it kinda hampering any ability to string together success ongoing, not that SHL would have done that anyway