NDL Forum

So is this virus like the flu, where it'll slow up greatly when it warms up?

That may explain why some of the warmer places like Latin America only having 25 total cases and the Philippines having zero cases(I think), right?

They dont know.

It is showing up in warmer places like Australia but definitely not in the numbers we see. But what about Florida in some of those areas that are warm already and its spiking?

Cnasty wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:42 am They dont know.

It is showing up in warmer places like Australia but definitely not in the numbers we see. But what about Florida in some of those areas that are warm already and its spiking?

Fair points.

But...Florida is a pretty booming tourist spot obviously, and even then with 195 cases, they have less than much smaller states like LA, NJ, and MASS...so comparative their numbers may not be THAT high, especially when factoring in how many people they have bringing in the virus from out of state into Florida. Again, just guessing there, but feels like it makes sense lol.

Yea that is one of the hopes many people have is the warm weather at least slowing it down a bit when it warms up but they really dont know yet.

Canada/US border now shut down outside of essential needs.

Where's Dak...our NDL resident mathematician


I wonder when we're talking about flattening the curve, do we only look at new cases per day, or is their importance to looking at the % increase daily, like I've posted a few times?

Or do you just use both because the more data the better?

If you just look at the raw number of new cases daily, it's still trending more and more upward. But if you look at the % increase on a daily basis, it has slowed down pretty drastically in the past week or so. I made a pretty Nick style Excel graph of it, but I have no clue how to post it here

Sounds like testing is horrible in Florida. Nearly everyone is turned away right now. My wife is considering going to stay with her. (my only issue is being 12hrs away... but being in a warm climate, with a pool, and not around old people is a good idea). I'm just not sure how comfortable I feel with them being in Florida and then there is a major outbreak. Right now, in SW Ohio, we have very few cases and testing seems reasonable. I have a location about 10min away that put through over 200 tests yesterday through drive up. Their only requirement to be tested is a family doctor's recommendation. (They did turn away about 40-50 that didn't have the recommendation)

Get you a drive through testing station

That's the other thing I keep forgetting, I'm not even sure any of these numbers matter for the US with how badly we've botched the testing aspect of this.

Makes me think we have wayyyyyyyy more cases and in turn a much lower mortality rate.

DRWebs wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:54 am Get you a drive through testing station

1 Popeye's Spicy with red beans and rice and 3 COVID tests to go please.

I'm not sure how to truly value by country comparisons between US, Italy, Spain, China, etc. To me, % growth rate is the only way it's a fair comparison. With that said, when it comes to "flattening the curve," it's # of new cases in serious/critical condition vs # of available ventilators. Then you have to factor in where the ventilators are and how those states are handling everything.

One thing is for sure, there are a lot of people that don't realize how complex our government is when comes to dealing with varying local, state and federal direction. In many cases, it's great to have, but in a time like this, it's a real pain in the ass.

I think until we see a normal average of new cases per day it will reach that "norm" and peak if it stays high numbers per day.

No one truly knows though with how the testing was bungled and until every single person has access to a test that needs it the numbers will always be skewed.

I think both are important.

It's interesting.

By raw # of new cases, the past 3 days are the highest 3 days on record.

By % increase, each of the past 3 days are the 3 lowest days since 2/28, when we had 4 cases to bring the total to 19.

shel311 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:55 am That's the other thing I keep forgetting, I'm not even sure any of these numbers matter for the US with how badly we've botched the testing aspect of this.

Makes me think we have wayyyyyyyy more cases and in turn a much lower mortality rate.

The botching of the testing is the bed that we've made with the amount of red tape involved with the FDA. Again, maybe it's good that we have the checks and balances that we do during normal times, but there needs to be a fast method to get through that in a time of emergency.

With that said, if this "new, automated" process churns out tests at speeds 10x other countries, then it may have been worth the time to design it.

shel311 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:55 am That's the other thing I keep forgetting, I'm not even sure any of these numbers matter for the US with how badly we've botched the testing aspect of this.

Makes me think we have wayyyyyyyy more cases and in turn a much lower mortality rate.

I think this is the case.

https://www.aier.org/article/south-kore ... ssion=true



South Korea seems to be handling COVID better than any of the other countries with widespread infection. And it's worth nothing that they're doing it without widespread quarantines.

They've gotten out in front of this with widespread testing and isolating the infected.

As early as the beginning of March their daily cases were in the 800s, and now they're down near or even below 100 the past couple of days. Again, all of that done without the widepsread self quarantine and basically shutting down the country like we're on our way to doing in the US.

Another tidbit, South Korea is testing more people in a day right now than the US has combined in 2 months.

We want our OWN test kits, screw the WHO ones!!

I assume Trump is calling these shots, but the US has just botched this on an epic scale.

The self quarantining and all the shutdowns is why this is slowing on the % increase I mentioned, but there is absolutely no reason why we don't have mass test kits everywhere to test everyone we need to do so we can get this under control by identifying who has actually has the virus instead of just shutting down all of the US and making us all stay home.

They've said multiple times that the FDA and CDC didn't agree on the use of the WHO kits, because their accuracy rating was around 60%. They believed they could do it better.

The test was sufficient for the world for the world but not for Trump.

Instead of using them in the interim they decide to use nothing and delay for crucial weeks.

Makes sense.