Fanduel / Draft Kings Discussion

[ReignOnU]

Solid work fellas. I really wish you guys got into this back when I first started pimpin' it. All good though... maybe this can grow into something bigger for everyone.

[ReignOnU]

Is that DK?

Yes

[trendon]

Solid work fellas. I really wish you guys got into this back when I first started pimpin' it. All good though... maybe this can grow into something bigger for everyone.

It's ridiculous and I wish I did listen to you then. Are there any spreadsheets for other sports so blind mice like me can get the cheese every day?

[ReignOnU]

I was somewhat close.

There's some deviation in there from just using raw stats.

#1 - I don't trust Jordan to put up that projected stat line of 12pts, 15 reb, 3 blks, 1 stl, 1 ast
#2 - I am speculating a bit on Favors... but I love him... even more so with Luis Scola guarding him tonight. He's had 2 below average games and 3 great games... the 2 below average games were against Griffin/Jordan and Chandler. Understandable.
#3 - Because I don't love a lot of the centers, I'm going upside combo on Favors/Kanter. I wouldn't do this in a GPP, but I'm all over a move like this in a H2H. I fully expect 4.5+ value from the combo of Favors/Kanter tonight.

FOLLOW UP:
#1 - 6pts, 13reb, 5blks, 1stl from Jordan... he almost hit that stat line.
#2 - Favors didn't breakout... but wasn't terrible... I still like him! (damn bias)
#3 - Fell short at 4.13... bad call. Kanter didn't rebound well at all... just 3 for the night and only played 25min (was +17, what was the coach thinking???)

@ Scola proving me wrong... while I was close on the 7/7 (he went 8/8 as opposed to 12/7 proj), he made it up in peripheral stats... 56 ratio.

[ReignOnU]

Solid work fellas. I really wish you guys got into this back when I first started pimpin' it. All good though... maybe this can grow into something bigger for everyone.

It's ridiculous and I wish I did listen to you then. Are there any spreadsheets for other sports so blind mice like me can get the cheese every day?

Basketball is the most consistent as it relates to stats... by far. So enjoy it as much as you can. Keep in mind, when baseball starts, the noobs that got run over in basketball all season quick dive into baseball, leaving a higher rate of "strong" players in the basketball games.

With that said... baseballmonster.com is your friend. Figuring out the pesky vs. R/L splits, home/away, and park factor can be annoying. baseballmonster integrates all of that for you. Beyond that, it comes down to setting up the right kind of lineup. I've juggled a few different options, because it's not quite as straightforward as basketball. One theory that I like is team stacking. Find a series of 3 players that hit relatively close to each other in a lineup and combine them with another group of 3, to optimize output.

NFL is crap... so much information, so much inconsistency in production, and price points are always limiting. I played condia on DK this weekend and our core idea was the same... Matt Ryan - Julio Jones - Roddy White... mix in around it. Generally speaking, a QB-WR combo is the way to go, use value at the RB positions, go for TD scorers at WR/TE.

NHL isn't as much statistics driven as is it common sense. Pair your Cs with the offensive W that plays on the same line, fill in the other W spots with value, go with reasonably priced D that works the PP. Pick a GK that should win, but still face a good amount of shots. GKs that don't face shots don't score as well. Dailyfaceoff.com is a great site for referencing current lines/starting goalies.

[ReignOnU]

Obvious tip on hockey... if you aren't familiar with it and want to give it a shot anyway... use vegas lines or team scoring (GF/GA) to get an idea of how the pace with play. If you're looking for value in a wing, look at SOG. Shooting % can vary quite a bit early in the season, so if you find a guy that has a ton of SOG, but not a lot of goals, you may be able to steal value.

[nick]

as a person who knows the NHL dont play hockey! lol

[Cnasty]

Reign/Trendon, do you feel the way Trendon is playing is more beneficial on DK as there are more newbs or on FD? I am seeing more and more guys on FD that have newbie statistics but arent putting in newbie lineups so I wonder if they created another account or are like us and have discovered BM.

Trendon says 220, but I have seen most 50/50s have their cutoff line around 260 to almost guarantee a W.

[trendon]

I was wrong. 250/260 is definitely where you need to be.

[trendon]

Yesterday, 252 points

27 $1 50/50: 27-0 (+21.60)
1 $5 GPP: 0-1 (-5.00)
1 $5 50/50: 1-0 (+4.00)
12 $10 50/50: 12-0 (+96.00)
1 $12 GPP: 0-1 (-12.00)
2 $20 50/50: 2-0 (+32.00)
1 $27 GPP: 0-1 (-27.00)

Noticing a pattern?

42-0 in 50/50's
0-3 in GPP

And Sunday was the same song and dance.

[Cnasty]

Lineup for tonight:

Mike Conley
Damian Lillard
Courtney Lee
Wesley Matthews
Draymond Green
Kawhi Leonard
Carlos Boozer
Zach Randolph
Marc Gasol

Projected:278

Weak at SG and not a fan of Boozer but like my other positions and still have $300 on the table even after trying different adjustments.

[ReignOnU]

Yesterday, 252 points

27 $1 50/50: 27-0 (+21.60)
1 $5 GPP: 0-1 (-5.00)
1 $5 50/50: 1-0 (+4.00)
12 $10 50/50: 12-0 (+96.00)
1 $12 GPP: 0-1 (-12.00)
2 $20 50/50: 2-0 (+32.00)
1 $27 GPP: 0-1 (-27.00)

Noticing a pattern?

42-0 in 50/50's
0-3 in GPP

And Sunday was the same song and dance.

I was looking through Ethan Haskall's information on Rotogrinders and it gave me an idea. I can pull my entire FD history and look at the exact ROI by buy-in / game type. I assume that when I do this, I'm going to see huge gains in GPP and a balanced performance in 50/50 or H2H. GPP has to be approached differently than the other 2.

About 2yrs ago, I did a write up for RG concerning the variance in lineups. You can see it here (feel free to disregard typos, etc... :
https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/The ... eply-35577

[ReignOnU]

Another thing that I don't cover... and have only explained to a few people, is how to take advantage of GPPs that allow multiple entries, but cap total entrants at a low level. This is something that looks to be easier to exploit on DK now, as opposed to FD. At first glance, it doesn't seem optimal, but I'm fairly certain that I've made a huge chunk of money doing this.

Consider this... there are 40 entrants in the field, you are allow 4 entries. Therefore, you own 10% of the lineups. Because you own 4 entries, you have the ability to vary those entries and create 4 unique chances that could win the top prize or place. Generally speaking, I do not place at all, about 10% of the time. In a large portion of the cases, I break even, or slightly ahead. In a lower percentage, I have a significant gain. These big wins easily cover the times that I completely crapped out... and more often then not, I just left the night with a minor gain.

When I looked at DK on Saturday night, I noticed a trend... 5-6 big dogs owned the H2H board and were in every 10 man 50/50. Some had a few entries into the $27, capped, multi-entry GPPs (FD doesn't have a section for these). Most of the entries into the GPPs were players that I wasn't familiar with or had little history on RG. Fast forward to last night while I was looking for a game on FD. Exact same thing happened with tonight's games popped up. Every entrant into 300 person GPP was a noob.

So with the majority of these noobs throwing darts in the GPPs and my ability to carefully craft 4 different teams based on good stats, I have a huge advantage. I could give an entire essay on the lineup building part, because it gets into avoiding players that directly compete, stacking players in a high paced game and using complimentary lineups like having Lebron in one lineup, then Love in a different.

I'll let you know my FD stats if I get around to it later today or tomorrow.

[DRiccio21]

PG
Ramon Sessions
SAC @ DAL
PG
Reggie Jackson
OKC @ MIL
SG
Wesley Matthews
POR v CHA
SG
Kobe Bryant
LAL @ MEM
SF
Jeremy Lamb
OKC @ MIL
SF
Dorell Wright
POR v CHA
PF
LaMarcus Aldridge
POR v CHA
PF
Dirk Nowitzki
DAL v SAC
C
Marc Gasol
MEM v LAL

i don't love using Kobe vs Memphis but i liked him more than my other alternatives

[Cnasty]

I dont have much confidence when your guys lineups are completely different than mine.

[DRiccio21]

I dont have much confidence when your guys lineups are completely different than mine.

i did my lineup in about 30 seconds.

[The_Niddler]

Lineup for tonight:

Mike Conley
Damian Lillard
Courtney Lee
Wesley Matthews
Draymond Green
Kawhi Leonard
Carlos Boozer
Zach Randolph
Marc Gasol

Projected:278

Weak at SG and not a fan of Boozer but like my other positions and still have $300 on the table even after trying different adjustments.

I have Brandon Knight at PG instead of Conley to use up the $300 that you had left.

[Cnasty]

Not sure the rule on so many guys from one team so concerned about that but here is my lineup for tonight:

Mike Conley
Damion Lillard
Courtney Lee
Wes Matthews
Draymond Green
Kawhi Leonard
Serge Ibaka
Zach Randolph
Andrew Bogut

[DRiccio21]

ideally if you're going to go with 3 guys you want them to be from teams who either a) play their starters a ton (one reason i'm starting 3 trailblazers), b) have a great match up c) play a high enough pace/high off efficiency that they are likely to spread enough to get value for 3 guys.

Memphis is a pretty slow paced team so starting 3 guys there could be a bit of a risk. but given their match up you might be okay.

[DRiccio21]

Reggie Jackson is one of my favorite players in the NBA. he's a 'sabrmetrics' guy dream and just needed usage to show what he can do.

he's not quite Harden potential but he's really freaking good. he was a 50/40/90 guy at Boston College meaning 50% from field, 40% from 3 and 90% from line. combine that with the fact that he has all the usage he wants with Westbrook and Durant out, i roll him out almost nightly and he's a relatively safe 30 pt guy while this OKC lineup disaster keeps going on.

Morrow is back tonight so that kind of puts a damper on Lamb's value. i don't have enough time to go thru and switch my lineup so kinda rolling dice on that tonight