You can view the stats in reverse very easily.shel311 wrote:I'm not saying this will last, but this guy on another board has started betting against the Astros and Marlins every game and is tracking it.
I think he hasn't updated in a few days, but as of a few days ago, betting $100 against both teams in every game this year would have yielded so far:
Against the Stros: +$1368
Against the Marlins: +$1049
And another guy did this with the Pirates a few years ago, there's a google doc with all the info. Betting $20 per game, he finished up around $400.
http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLo ... gular.html
If you bet $100 ON the Marlins every game, you'd be down $1,973. Now, let's just assume - on average - you had to lay $150 to win $100 betting against the Marlins in every game. They are 13-39.
13 losses: 13 x $150 = -$1,950
39 Wins: 39 * $100 = $3,900
You'd be up just under $2,000 on $100 bets.
However, the trick is to identify teams that will have a huge turnaround at the start of the season while they are still priced at an advantage. It is all arbitrage. That -150 is a bit generous, though. After seing it a lot in April, you've only had to pay $150 to win $100 twice in May ... it's been near 2:1 for most of the month so the value is gone unless the Marlins continue to win at a 25% clip, which is unlikely.
