Who's watching Colts-Patriots???

[ajalves]

It was the right call, period. Punting in it of itself has a negative expected value.

there is no "period"...gimme a fucking break with that shit. manning was having a shitty game until one drive...."period"

[Uuaww]

What if you're the Raiders and have JaMarcus at QB? Doesn't the probability drop to about 25% of what it originally was? Add that you have Shane Lechler (one of the greatest punters) on the Raiders and you really can't justify any reason for the Raiders not to punt on 3rd down.

[DRiccio21]

But as Trendon pointed out with his calculations, the odds of that happening are probably a whole lot lower than the odds of the Jets going down and scoring a TD in the final 2 minutes.

i agree i thought both were the right calls

[ajalves]

thats all well and good, but lets not start putting shit like "period" like thats the end of the discussion. This is ALL opinion. If Bellicheck truly thought it was what was best for the team the other night then thats the way it is.

I dont think it was the right call at all....."period"

[Cnasty]

I think some of us are on our "period"

[packsyD22]

I havent read too much of this thread....bottom line is your up by 6...punt the ball away and let your defense win the game. Its that simple. O and Manning had thrown to terrible picks, so again let your defense play!!

[Matt90210]

Thing is, it is only a bad call because they didn't get the first down (stevie wonder ref). If they get the first down, it is a GUTSY call and Bellichick shows us once again why he's a genius.

So, you people saying it is a bad call would be singing a different tune had the ball been spotted correctly and they been given the first down and, consequently, the win.

I'm saying it is a great call either way.


Period.

[Matt90210]

I havent read too much of this thread....bottom line is your up by 6...punt the ball away and let your defense win the game. Its that simple. O and Manning had thrown to terrible picks, so again let your defense play!!

But you have the best QB in the NFL and you only need 2 yards to put away an 8-0 ball club with a stellar offense.

Yes, Manning had a down game for his standards, but that offense had caught fire in the 4th quarter against a gassed and inexperienced defense.

[shel311]

It was the right call, period. Punting in it of itself has a negative expected value.

You said if you punt, you win 70% of the time, unless I'm misunderstanding, how is that negative expected value?

[trendon]

Years ago, my friend sent me a college thesis some kid wrote that detailed how punting is almost never a sound strategy. Of course, there are certain situations where it would be - and, by the way, this Belichick call was NOT one of them - prudent to punt.

I read it - as best as I could as it had some really fucking complex math - and it totally changed my outlook on football. I also am very thankful for it because it introduced me to the football concepts of win probability and expected points; math for the nerd in me.

Soon therafter, Gregg Easterbrook wrote a nice article on it; http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/st ... ook/060926

Read it. A different version of the thesis is in there - a cleaner version - and it is a wonderful read.

As for Corey, according to my math (which I substantiated at nfladvancedstats.com, hence the PERIOD):

Punt = 70% chance of winning
Going for it = more than that

Thus, negative expected value.

Now, here is the kicker, at least to me. The number I got from advancednflstats.com on how often teams will score with 120 seconds left from there own 35 (estimated net punt) was 30%. That's league-wide. That isn't Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning who had as many incompletions in the second half (two) as he did touchdowns (two). I am sure the Colts would have a probability damn near 50%, making it an adjusted 50% chance. Likewise, the ENTIRE LEAGUE averages more than two yards per play. The Patriots surely are higher.

It was a no-brainer. Period. A lot of people are just accostomed to coaches playing the traditional card, not the safe or right one.

[Matt90210]

A lot of people are just accostomed to coaches playing the traditional card, not the safe or right one.

I merely skimmed the information above this, but this one line is money and absolutely true.

[packsyD22]

How come no one else does this then except Belichick Matt? You punt the ball there I dont care how good your QB is. If he is the best QB then why didnt they throw to Randy Moss one of the best in the game as well. Let your D earn the victory.

[Seeitsaveit13]

How come no one else does this then except Belichick Matt? You punt the ball there I dont care how good your QB is. If he is the best QB then why didnt they throw to Randy Moss one of the best in the game as well. Let your D earn the victory.

Because he's the only one that's arrogant and ballsy (dangerous combo) enough to do it

[DRiccio21]

How come no one else does this then except Belichick Matt? You punt the ball there I dont care how good your QB is. If he is the best QB then why didnt they throw to Randy Moss one of the best in the game as well. Let your D earn the victory.

how come back in the 60's everyone ran the ball every play of the game and now they dont

how come in baseball, guys who had an obp of .250 but hit 30 hr's were considered good players but arent anymore

probability has changed sports... it just takes time, as football is much more complex game then baseball so the formulas aren't as precise. one of the few areas you can use math is a situation like this tho.

i know alot of you ACTUALLY think you know who are going to win games and you bet accordingly, most professional gamblers bet when they can tease to a certain number or when the lines are off (like the xtra point bet i made a few years ago... extra points are like 98% and they were giving me odds way off from that). real gamblers are guys like VVV who think they 'know' more then other people, they are guys that bet very little but bet heavy when they have a tip (granted all gamblers are action junkies but the heavy wagering is saved for probability bets)

you should ALWAYS go with the best mathmatical outcome... ALWAYS. i fight with my brother every fuckin day about this type of stuff b/c he's from the old school and just cant wrap his miniscule brain around math and probability.

its the same shit with stocks... its all based on probability... i follow a formula that is like the moneyball for stocks, it doesnt matter if a company makes baby diapers or the cure for cancer, percentages are percentages and i bet big when the odds are in my favor.

now, i'll agree with AJ that saying the word 'PERIOD' is a little arrogant... they didnt get it so its wasn't 'PERIOD'. i agree with it 100% but there is certainly risk involved, just less risk then the other option

[trendon]

How come no one else does this then except Belichick Matt? You punt the ball there I dont care how good your QB is. If he is the best QB then why didnt they throw to Randy Moss one of the best in the game as well. Let your D earn the victory.

Job security; he has it. Very few others do and they don't care to lose a game "because" of a missed fourth down conversion.

If you punt and lose, not only is it "safe" (which it is mathematically not) but you have lots of blame to go around. Sports fans and analysts are, by and large, stupid and have a mob mentality. I speak with two dozen or more each and every day. If it weren't for the water cooler, they wouldn't even be able to recognize a football, let alone understand the game.

Some guy asked me today, "HOW COME ALL COACHES DON'T GO FOR TWO EVERY TIME THEN?!?!?!?!" Easy, nimrod, the success rate isn't over 50%. He still didn't get it. "Diehard" Cowboys fan, too. Go figure. Win a playoff game, fag!

[trendon]

now, i'll agree with AJ that saying the word 'PERIOD' is a little arrogant... they didnt get it so its wasn't 'PERIOD'. i agree with it 100% but there is certainly risk involved, just less risk then the other option

I said "period" because of the math. Not anecdotal evidence. While football might not be the numbers game like baseball is (you ever read Moneyball? My god!) but it isn't entirely hypothetical either.

On a side note, have you ever studied baseball stats? It is amazing. If a guy is a 260/314/574 man, he will - barring injuries - like always be a .260/314/574. It is startling.

[plasma1896]

How come no one else does this then except Belichick Matt? You punt the ball there I dont care how good your QB is. If he is the best QB then why didnt they throw to Randy Moss one of the best in the game as well. Let your D earn the victory.

how come back in the 60's everyone ran the ball every play of the game and now they dont

how come in baseball, guys who had an obp of .250 but hit 30 hr's were considered good players but arent anymore

probability has changed sports... it just takes time, as football is much more complex game then baseball so the formulas aren't as precise. one of the few areas you can use math is a situation like this tho.

i know alot of you ACTUALLY think you know who are going to win games and you bet accordingly, most professional gamblers bet when they can tease to a certain number or when the lines are off (like the xtra point bet i made a few years ago... extra points are like 98% and they were giving me odds way off from that). real gamblers are guys like VVV who think they 'know' more then other people, they are guys that bet very little but bet heavy when they have a tip (granted all gamblers are action junkies but the heavy wagering is saved for probability bets)

you should ALWAYS go with the best mathmatical outcome... ALWAYS. i fight with my brother every fuckin day about this type of stuff b/c he's from the old school and just cant wrap his miniscule brain around math and probability.

its the same shit with stocks... its all based on probability... i follow a formula that is like the moneyball for stocks, it doesnt matter if a company makes baby diapers or the cure for cancer, percentages are percentages and i bet big when the odds are in my favor.

now, i'll agree with AJ that saying the word 'PERIOD' is a little arrogant... they didnt get it so its wasn't 'PERIOD'. i agree with it 100% but there is certainly risk involved, just less risk then the other option

thank you jimmy the greek

[trendon]

Riccio the Greek believes that black men were ancestors of aliens and that's why they can run and jump faster and higher. Throw him out of the league!

Plus, he used BIG RUN on me for two plays.

[packsyD22]

Lemme ask you guys this...just cause it pertains to my fav team and cost my fav team a title maybe (not punting). When Pete Carroll ran the ball on 4th and inches and had his best player off of the field and didn't get it he got a lot of shit.....esp from a ton of people in this league, yet BB does it and its ok? I never second guessed Pete but thats because nobody was stopping VY that night. On the other hand Manning did not look sharp and I think thats what you go off of, and I think you put the game in the hands of your defense. I dunno just using another example, except obviously it was a little bit bigger of a game at that time.

He gets paid the big bucks to make those decisions and of course if he makes it he is a genious...hined sight is always fifty fifty.

[Matt90210]

Lemme ask you guys this...just cause it pertains to my fav team and cost my fav team a title maybe (not punting). When Pete Carroll ran the ball on 4th and inches and had his best player off of the field and didn't get it he got a lot of shit.....esp from a ton of people in this league, yet BB does it and its ok? I never second guessed Pete but thats because nobody was stopping VY that night. On the other hand Manning did not look sharp and I think thats what you go off of, and I think you put the game in the hands of your defense. I dunno just using another example, except obviously it was a little bit bigger of a game at that time.

He gets paid the big bucks to make those decisions and of course if he makes it he is a genious...hined sight is always fifty fifty.

People will always call something a bad decision when it doesn't work. That is my point. If the Pats convert, people praise him. Retarded.