NDL Forum

Ya harden is a loser. Reading about how the Rockets were just yes men to him. Woof.

So let me get this straight, Mikes Garrett was the Browns nomination for the Walter Payton Award, WTF?

Ya Myles bro

Everytime I see Corusso I think of Billy with a sweat band

Solid night of hoops... except for Billy.

Woke up and watched the replay. Made it until the half way mark of the 3rd quarter. Gave more effort than any of the Bulls did.

0-3 gambling. im trash with the NBA

nick wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 2:44 am 0-3 gambling. im trash with the NBA

Betting NBA is difficult... playing DFS NBA is printing money.

ReignOnU wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:21 pm

nick wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 2:44 am 0-3 gambling. im trash with the NBA

Betting NBA is difficult... playing DFS NBA is printing money.

Got an email from FD after not using my account for 2 years and they were going to close it.

Loaded up as many lineups as I could to work my way through the balance as fast as I could before tip.

Won $187

Cash out!

Welcome to the NBA, Melo

LaMelo Ball is the first Top-3 pick to score 0 points in his NBA debut since Otto Porter Jr. (2013). The only other Top-3 picks to be held scoreless in their NBA debut over the last 15 seasons are Hasheem Thabeet (2009) and Greg Oden (2008).

https://www.instagram.com/p/CJKm8GkBCOU ... 90oc0tijl0

ReignOnU wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:21 pm

nick wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 2:44 am 0-3 gambling. im trash with the NBA

Betting NBA is difficult... playing DFS NBA is printing money.

Whats ur secret? I dabble off and on but always seem to hang around even

I was just thinking about loading back up and getting into NBA DFS the other day, good timing.

footballkelly31 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 2:18 pm

ReignOnU wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:21 pm

nick wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 2:44 am 0-3 gambling. im trash with the NBA

Betting NBA is difficult... playing DFS NBA is printing money.

Whats ur secret? I dabble off and on but always seem to hang around even

My smartass answer... don't dabble off and on.

It's probably a 20min read for me to give the full details, but here's an abbreviated version...
1.) Pick-up your games the night before, because you're likely to get them from A.) People that just lost tonight and B.) aren't likely to be on tip-off tomorrow.
2.) You need to be online and adjusting your lineup at 6:30p EST and 9-9:30P EST. You're looking for last minute lineup changes that create ROI on guys that are stepping into more minutes due to lineup changes.
3.) You need to play every day... because playing every day and reviewing your scores keeps you in touch with who is starting, what is going on with a team's offense/defense, what the rotation looks like, etc.
4.) Don't create games and throw them out for anyone to get. You'll get sniped by sharks. Refresh for the available games frequently and wait to cherry-pick your opponent. Spending 5-10min doing this will increase your odds of winning by a ton.
5.) When making a lineup, you need to have a method to determine ROI. Just picking guys that you think will do good without understanding how/why, is a just pissing money away.

You can pay a service for this, but here's an example...
- Download projected stats from a site (review them to make sure you agree, adjust if needed)
- Apply the FD scoring system to get projected fantasy points
- There's a few ways to do this next step, but I prefer to look at fantasy points per $1k salary. So plug in a basic formula =("Fantasy Points"/("Salary"/1000))
- I prefer to sort and/or shade to quickly see the best values.
- This is where you need to use some common sense... There are going to be some major outliers... you can get a 6 fantasy points per 1k return your entire lineup, but that's a lineup of $4k-$5k guys. What you have to find is the right balance of excellent value and a guarantee that they will hit it. If you see Lebron at 5 fantasy points per $1k salary, you jump all over it. That means that you're likely to get 50 fantasy points. While if you see Alex Caruso, you likely avoid it. The caveats are players that are starting or playing a lot more minutes than normal. Fantasy sports sites are slow to adjust prices. So when Lebron rests, Kuzma typically is a strong play.

Now put it all together... you picked a game vs Drunk Billy after he threw one out there while he was getting slapped around last night. Billy put in his lineup of stars that he knows will play well. You come back at 6:30p and you catch the breaking news that Lebron and AD will rest. You plug in Kuzma who is 1/3 of the price of Lebron. Now you also have extra cap to add in KD who's going up against Wizards. You're winning that game at a 90% clip. This is nothing but adding a series of 5% edges, until you accumulated a huge edge.


There's going to be a few more obstacles this year, compared to others, with start times spread out more, players likely to rest more, etc. If you're not paying attention consistently, then you need to take the approach that you're playing for that nights entertainment and you should have very low expectations of winning long-term.

I'm sure I offered back when I was playing full-time in the early stages of DFS, but I'll offer again... once the season gets into gear, I'd be happy to run you through what it takes to be successful. The biggest thing is having a process and being consistent with it. Tweak the process as needed, but don't overreact after a bad run of 5-6 nights. Use smart bankroll management. If you do that, you'll be just fine. DFS is way more competitive now with all of the subscription based stat sites, but the keys to winning haven't changed. In fact, I'd tell you that a lot of those sites are over valuing quite a few stats.

I've been fairly out of touch with DFS since 2014-15, but started again recently just for fun. Not putting in the big effort. But I've looked up some articles, scoped the landscape, etc... it's the same guys I was BSing with back then that are still consistently hitting.

https://rotogrinders.com/articles/ranki ... -may-46587

Just as an example... this is the top 50 DFS players from 8yrs ago. If you're active at all, you'll recognize about half of them. Also, many of them run the 'tout' and 'stats' websites that are out there now. I saw an article yesterday from HeadChopper and it was titled "HeadChopper details his $1m winning lineup!" I didn't even bother reading it, because A.) he runs 100s of lineups per night and B.) that style doesn't apply to me right now. (and you shouldn't waste time either, those guys are playing a different game)

I'd have to dig it up, but years ago I wrote a terribly edited article for Rotogrinders on setting your lineup to fit the game your playing. I didn't talk about that above... but it's critical to success. I'd estimate well over half of what you read on websites doesn't really apply to what you should be doing.

A few final things... if you just want to F around an have fun... jump on FD and play their snake drafts. You can use some strategy, or just wing it. It's way more random, but really fun. EPL, Champion's League, and NFL have been great. Short schedule NBA is fun too.

I finally stopped running my season long football leagues this year (thank you COVID). I hosted 1 league on FD, week to week salary cap, top 10 scores of the season count... I'll never go back to season-long. It's trash.

Finally finally... Merry Christmas fellas. Wish you all the best.

I don't even know what the fuck I just read

What the hell is DFS?

Merry Christmas everyone, should have some decent basketball games on today

Hate to see Jimmy go down but glad the Dragon came home with all his buttery goodness.

Loving Precious’s game and potential.

Great Christmas W fellas.

Luka is beating the Clippers 77-27 at the half

Cnasty wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:45 pm Luka is beating the Clippers 77-27 at the half

Just saw it was 120-71 with 2 minutes left. Did Luka have a triple double after the first half?