NDL Forum

The Wells report’s main finding is that the Patriots balls declined in pressure more than the Colts balls did in the first half of their game, and that the decline is highly statistically significant. For the sake of argument, let’s grant this finding for now. Even still, it alone does not prove misconduct. There are, after all, two possibilities. The first is that the Patriots balls declined too much. The second — overlooked by the Wells report — is that the Colts balls declined too little.

The latter possibility appears to be more likely.

But when we analyzed the data provided in the Wells report, we found that the Patriots balls declined by about the expected amount, while the Colts balls declined by less. In fact, the pressure of the Colts balls was statistically significantly higher than expected. Contrary to the report, the significant difference between the changes in pressure of the two teams’ balls was not because the pressure of the Patriots balls was too low, but because that of the Colts balls was too high.

How could this be? The report’s own findings suggest an explanation: At halftime, N.F.L. officials measured the pressure of “only a sample” of the Colts balls (four out of 12) before they ran out of time; the second half of the game was about to begin.

This implies that the Colts balls sat in the warm room where they were to be measured — and thus increased in pressure — for almost the entirety of halftime before being measured.

All of the 11 available Patriots balls, by contrast, were measured at halftime, which suggests that they were measured earlier, when they were colder — and thus lower in pressure. Although this explanation contradicts the Wells report’s conclusions, it fits all the evidence.

There are other factors discussed in our study that undermine support for the Wells report’s conclusions. For example, there is considerable uncertainty concerning the actual pressure of the footballs. The N.F.L. official who checked the pressure before the game used some combination of two pressure gauges to measure the Patriots and Colts balls, but it is not known which particular combination.

One of the gauges, as the report notes, records pressures that are higher than the other. If the official used that gauge to measure the Patriots balls (but not the Colts balls) pregame, then those balls may well have started out with too little air, which could explain a later appearance of intentional deflation. The report, however, does not consider that possibility.

Our recommendation? When the N.F.L. hears Mr. Brady’s appeal of his suspension later this month, it should proceed with the knowledge that the Wells report is unreliable.

In 2012, however, we published an analysis of N.F.L. injury data that found that the Saints injured fewer opposing players than all but two teams did in 2009, and fewer than all but one team did from 2009 to 2011. Even if Saints officials offered “bounties,” there was no good evidence that Saints players were influenced by them.

cougnix wrote:Pro Writers named Richard Sherman as "Good Guy" Award Winner

He does alot in the community up here in the Northwest and in his hometown. He is a good guy, just not popular it seems outside of the Seahawk contingent...

nick wrote:

shel311 wrote:The dude in the white swinging the belt is linebacker Junior Gallette from the Saints. He already has a meeting with Goodell scheduled for other off field incidents, not even this one.

This happened and has been on YouTube since 2013, not sure how or why it just became a thing.

AT any rate, I don't expect he'll be playing much this season.

shel311 wrote:The dude in the white swinging the belt is linebacker Junior Gallette from the Saints.

Whittness10 wrote:

shel311 wrote:The dude in the white swinging the belt is linebacker Junior Gallette from the Saints.

Never heard of the guy. Is he good or just meh?

shel311 wrote:Taylor Swift to perform at the next Super Bowl halftime

nick wrote:Bye JPP's right index finger
Bye 2 of CJ Wilson's (Buc CB) fingers

texasfan4444 wrote:

nick wrote:Bye JPP's right index finger
Bye 2 of CJ Wilson's (Buc CB) fingers

Idiots. Go join a country club and enjoy some one else doing it for you.

Cnasty wrote:

texasfan4444 wrote:

nick wrote:Bye JPP's right index finger
Bye 2 of CJ Wilson's (Buc CB) fingers

Idiots. Go join a country club and enjoy some one else doing it for you.

Cue Riccio with "these are normal guys just like us" schpiel