Who will be buying a PS4?

[dakshdar]

This is all generally true, but keep in mind this is a company that is not in the business of making a machine that will last forever, they're in the business of making money.

They offer a 1 year standard warranty. Which means they probably do all their design, analysis, and testing on a 2-3 year product life. Beyond that, they really don't care. The handful of people with extended warranties are paying for that, and that covers the replacement of a machine that dies during the extended period, but they still profit there as well. They will crunch all their numbers and put together a machine that has an acceptable failure rate within the warranty period, a slightly worse failure rate in the following 2 years beyond that, and if it makes it longer than 3 years of what they consider average use, that's just gravy.

We do the same thing with billion dollar satellites. They have a mission life of maybe 6-7 years, we do design, analysis, and life testing to twice that (life testing is accelerated and not 1-to-1, so we use harsher conditions over a shorter period to simulate a longer life test, and I'm sure Sony would do the same), but in order to save cost and effort, we always cut it off at 2 x life in the design/test/analysis stuff. If it lasts longer, and it almost always does, then great.

And when you're dealing with small, cheaper electronics, this is even more true. Sony knows that there is some very high percentage that if the machine breaks after warranty, we'll just run out and buy another because we'll have all these games sitting around we can't play. There is no incentive for them to use more expensive parts or a more complicated design just so you can make a machine that will last 10 years under constant heavy use. They can't make money that way (or likely not as much since they could charge more, but that would hurt sales, and reduce the purchasing of second units if they last so long).

[ajalves]

This is all generally true, but keep in mind this is a company that is not in the business of making a machine that will last forever, they're in the business of making money.

They offer a 1 year standard warranty. Which means they probably do all their design, analysis, and testing on a 2-3 year product life. Beyond that, they really don't care. The handful of people with extended warranties are paying for that, and that covers the replacement of a machine that dies during the extended period, but they still profit there as well. They will crunch all their numbers and put together a machine that has an acceptable failure rate within the warranty period, a slightly worse failure rate in the following 2 years beyond that, and if it makes it longer than 3 years of what they consider average use, that's just gravy.

We do the same thing with billion dollar satellites. They have a mission life of maybe 6-7 years, we do design, analysis, and life testing to twice that (life testing is accelerated and not 1-to-1, so we use harsher conditions over a shorter period to simulate a longer life test, and I'm sure Sony would do the same), but in order to save cost and effort, we always cut it off at 2 x life in the design/test/analysis stuff. If it lasts longer, and it almost always does, then great.

And when you're dealing with small, cheaper electronics, this is even more true. Sony knows that there is some very high percentage that if the machine breaks after warranty, we'll just run out and buy another because we'll have all these games sitting around we can't play. There is no incentive for them to use more expensive parts or a more complicated design just so you can make a machine that will last 10 years under constant heavy use. They can't make money that way (or likely not as much since they could charge more, but that would hurt sales, and reduce the purchasing of second units if they last so long).

assuming all that is true, which anyone with 1/3 a brain knows already,....how is waiting to buy it going to change anything?

Do they make a better product a year after it comes out? 6 months? Do they start using better parts or something?

[dakshdar]

Yes. They can correct a problem uncovered by user stress testing of the system. Both Sony and Microsoft did this last generation. They corrected the YLOD and RROD with the Slim PS3 and the Xbox 360 Elite.

We're doing their testing for them so the correction is cheaper, and it incentivizes us to buy a second system because they can say "We fixed the problem, come get a new one!"

[cougnix]

$400 mil+ in revenue tells me that people don't care if they have a potential to only last 2 years...

[shel311]

assuming all that is true, which anyone with 1/3 a brain knows already,....how is waiting to buy it going to change anything?

I feel like you could have used your other 2/3 of the brain to get the obvious answer to that one.

[ajalves]

Yes. They can correct a problem uncovered by user stress testing of the system. Both Sony and Microsoft did this last generation. They corrected the YLOD and RROD with the Slim PS3 and the Xbox 360 Elite.

We're doing their testing for them so the correction is cheaper, and it incentivizes us to buy a second system because they can say "We fixed the problem, come get a new one!"

no it doesnt

lighten up Francis.

you know you're getting it for free essentially. Be wreckless and get it at launch. ZERO reason not to.

[ajalves]

assuming all that is true, which anyone with 1/3 a brain knows already,....how is waiting to buy it going to change anything?

I feel like you could have used your other 2/3 of the brain to get the obvious answer to that one.

was rhetorical

[shel311]

assuming all that is true, which anyone with 1/3 a brain knows already,....how is waiting to buy it going to change anything?

I feel like you could have used your other 2/3 of the brain to get the obvious answer to that one.

was rhetorical

You lost me on that one.

[dakshdar]

Yes. They can correct a problem uncovered by user stress testing of the system. Both Sony and Microsoft did this last generation. They corrected the YLOD and RROD with the Slim PS3 and the Xbox 360 Elite.

We're doing their testing for them so the correction is cheaper, and it incentivizes us to buy a second system because they can say "We fixed the problem, come get a new one!"

no it doesnt

lighten up Francis.

you know you're getting it for free essentially. Be wreckless and get it at launch. ZERO reason not to.

Well, I guess I'm alone in that. If I buy something, and it breaks right after warranty, but the product has been upgraded to a Version 2 on the shelf that fixes the problem that caused mine to break, I'm more likely to go buy that new version. If they haven't fixed it, then I'd fall into the "Fooled me once..." category, and I'll pass on that.

[ajalves]

Dak is saying he is waiting to buy the PS4 essentially because they are defective on launch. he is going to wait 6 months or a year he says. he then proceeds to explain how Sony and some NASA type company know how long their products will last. about 2 years for the PS3/PS4 and 6 or 7 years for space sattelites. I was merely asking if he knows how these particular products are made, and he is for sure buying one, how is waiting 6 months to get a PS4 going to make it a better product? answer.....its not

rhetorical...A question asked merely for effect with no answer expected.

[ajalves]

Yes. They can correct a problem uncovered by user stress testing of the system. Both Sony and Microsoft did this last generation. They corrected the YLOD and RROD with the Slim PS3 and the Xbox 360 Elite.

We're doing their testing for them so the correction is cheaper, and it incentivizes us to buy a second system because they can say "We fixed the problem, come get a new one!"

no it doesnt

lighten up Francis.

you know you're getting it for free essentially. Be wreckless and get it at launch. ZERO reason not to.

Well, I guess I'm alone in that. If I buy something, and it breaks right after warranty, but the product has been upgraded to a Version 2 on the shelf that fixes the problem that caused mine to break, I'm more likely to go buy that new version. If they haven't fixed it, then I'd fall into the "Fooled me once..." category, and I'll pass on that.

come on. if you're referring to the slim...and i'm just guessing here...didnt that come out like 3 or 4 years after the original Ps3? you honestly believe that will happen again with the PS4?

I suppose it might. Nevertheless, you're getting it for freeeeee. live a little take a chance!!!

[dakshdar]

Sorry. I'm an engineer. By nature I'm more rational and logical than a risk taker.

I'm definitely getting one almost right away.

I do fully expect that it might crap out in 2-3 years, but I get 2-3 years of a new system with new games I can't play any other way. That's a good trade for a "free" system.

Also, it was less than 3 years from North America launch of the PS3 and the release of the Slim.

[DRiccio21]

Sorry. I'm an engineer. By nature I'm more rational and logical than a risk taker.

this is an interesting comment.

I have a few engineers as clients and they are typically really big risk takers... they understand probability and risk/reward better than most. I guess how we define 'risk' is pretty important.

[dakshdar]

Sorry. I'm an engineer. By nature I'm more rational and logical than a risk taker.

this is an interesting comment.

I have a few engineers as clients and they are typically really big risk takers... they understand probability and risk/reward better than most. I guess how we define 'risk' is pretty important.

Well, I'm definitely generalizing. But, I think that once you understand probability and risk reward, which we typically do in this business, it becomes less of a risk and more of a calculated attempt.

I classify a risk as making a decision without knowing the probabilities involved (so more like a gamble, and I hate gambling other than blackjack which I feel is more defined odds that are affected by how you play -- vs craps which is just stupid luck/boring to me). I was just chiding AJ really, though. I don't think buying a PS4 is a risk.

[DRiccio21]

Well, I'm definitely generalizing. But, I think that once you understand probability and risk reward, which we typically do in this business, it becomes less of a risk and more of a calculated attempt.

I classify a risk as making a decision without knowing the probabilities involved. I was just chiding AJ really, though. I don't think buying a PS4 is a risk.

agree completely. sometimes the idea of risk is misunderstood. I see it all the time.

[ajalves]

Sorry. I'm an engineer. By nature I'm more rational and logical than a risk taker.

I'm definitely getting one almost right away.

I do fully expect that it might crap out in 2-3 years, but I get 2-3 years of a new system with new games I can't play any other way. That's a good trade for a "free" system.

Also, it was less than 3 years from North America launch of the PS3 and the release of the Slim.

You could be one of the 1st people in history to ever infer that I was a risk taker. Dak makes me look like travis pestrana

I dont make GREAT money. But i suppose if the PS4 last 4 or 5 years before i have to replace it than thats worth $400 for as much as I'll use it, which is quite a bit. I'd like to expand my use of the PS4 actually. actually "make it worth" my money!!!

[The_Niddler]

I agree with most of what Dak stated.

However, companies like Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo do not make money the way they currently make a gaming system.
Most companies sell their systems at a loss or very, very little profit if any.

They make money on the accessories mostly and a little profit on games.

[LytezOut]

I've already preordered it

[UclaMac]

I am on the fence. I dont think I will get one for launch, but if we move to the ps4 im sure I would pick one up.

[sixpackdan101]

I agree with most of what Dak stated.

However, companies like Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo do not make money the way they currently make a gaming system.
Most companies sell their systems at a loss or very, very little profit if any.

They make money on the accessories mostly and a little profit on games.

I would say most of their profit comes from software....not accessories.