NDL Forum

Wait, so you went with the S? Nice man, enjoy!

Weasel wrote:Wait, so you went with the S? Nice man, enjoy!

Yea. After they refreshed the body and had the price drop I made the plunge.

Made the mistake of test driving it with auto pilot and I was done

Keeping the Model 3 reservation for my wife which I assume will be sometime in 2018.

I just don't see how Tesla will be able to stay around long term and overcome all the new EVs coming to market over the next 5 years or so in Audi, BMW, Mecades for model S competition and Nissan and chevy for model 3 competition.

I wish the group buy scenario would catch on like the instance that is happening in Canada. 3,000 people signed up to buy a new Leaf for around 15-18K. 3,000 is like 3 times as many leafs sold in a whole year in Canada now. The market is there for the mass producing car makers when the batteries get up to 200+ range.

Cnasty wrote:

Weasel wrote:Wait, so you went with the S? Nice man, enjoy!

Yea. After they refreshed the body and had the price drop I made the plunge.

Made the mistake of test driving it with auto pilot and I was done

Keeping the Model 3 reservation for my wife which I assume will be sometime in 2018.

How much a home charger run ya for a Tesla? Is there wireless yet?

Crowes wrote:

Cnasty wrote:

Weasel wrote:Wait, so you went with the S? Nice man, enjoy!

Yea. After they refreshed the body and had the price drop I made the plunge.

Made the mistake of test driving it with auto pilot and I was done

Keeping the Model 3 reservation for my wife which I assume will be sometime in 2018.

How much a home charger run ya for a Tesla? Is there wireless yet?

I got what's called a NEMA 14-50 installed in my garage right under my panel box.

Gets 30 miles per hour on a charge. Quick job by an electrician for $300 and I get 40% back due to a federal credit come tax time. Not bad.

Crowes wrote:I just don't see how Tesla will be able to stay around long term and overcome all the new EVs coming to market over the next 5 years or so in Audi, BMW, Mecades for model S competition and Nissan and chevy for model 3 competition.

I wish the group buy scenario would catch on like the instance that is happening in Canada. 3,000 people signed up to buy a new Leaf for around 15-18K. 3,000 is like 3 times as many leafs sold in a whole year in Canada now. The market is there for the mass producing car makers when the batteries get up to 200+ range.

I guess I don't understand.

They are easily the top in the game when it comes to EVs. They have over 400k reservations for the model 3 which will be the game changer in the industry at its price point.

Chevy, Nissan, GM and the other American type car companies "don't get it". People don't want those ugly ass EVs they produce with far inferior battery technology. Until they show they can change their mindset and produce something that is getting the hype and following of the Model 3 I think tesla is just now hitting their stride.

Not to mention the solar city merger, future of tesla trucks and other things the mad scientist have planned.

Could be wrong though and Tesla is the next Delorean

Cnasty wrote:

Crowes wrote:I just don't see how Tesla will be able to stay around long term and overcome all the new EVs coming to market over the next 5 years or so in Audi, BMW, Mecades for model S competition and Nissan and chevy for model 3 competition.

I wish the group buy scenario would catch on like the instance that is happening in Canada. 3,000 people signed up to buy a new Leaf for around 15-18K. 3,000 is like 3 times as many leafs sold in a whole year in Canada now. The market is there for the mass producing car makers when the batteries get up to 200+ range.

I guess I don't understand.

They are easily the top in the game when it comes to EVs. They have over 400k reservations for the model 3 which will be the game changer in the industry at its price point.

Chevy, Nissan, GM and the other American type car companies "don't get it". People don't want those ugly ass EVs they produce with far inferior battery technology. Until they show they can change their mindset and produce something that is getting the hype and following of the Model 3 I think tesla is just now hitting their stride.

Not to mention the solar city merger, future of tesla trucks and other things the mad scientist have planned.

Could be wrong though and Tesla is the next Delorean

Unless im mistaken and not remembering properly all of the past new models from telsa have faced a 1 to 2 year delay on coming to market from when they originally said they would so that puts the model 3 around 2020. I only really keep up with the leaf so they are only one I can comment to specifically but come the 2018 model year a 200+ mile EV with more mainstream styling will be in dealerships for under the model 3 price point so I can't see those 400k people sticking around waiting another two years waiting for a more expensive Tesla.

As far as the other car companies not getting it there wasn't a market big enough to warrant them putting out a 100K EV 5-7 years ago with around a 200+ mile range like Tesla did. But now battery cost have come down significantly thus allowing the model 3, bolt, and leaf to offer 200+ range for under 35K. I think Tesla's look sharp as fuck but I just dont see how Tesla will be able to keep costs where they need to be long term when they arent as diversified as the established car makers nor do they have the production capacity to be able to get the cost saving of a mass produced car. Tesla was a trailblazer for EV cars no one can deny that but when you look at what a GM, nissan, or any other top car maker can put out with factories all over the world you gotta think can tesla survive with one car factory in cali. Tesla is building the gigafactory but Nissan already has three battery plants in Japan, US, and UK. Im just think worldwide here so who knows....

Crowes wrote:I just don't see how Tesla will be able to stay around long term and overcome all the new EVs coming to market over the next 5 years or so in Audi, BMW, Mecades for model S competition and Nissan and chevy for model 3 competition.

I wish the group buy scenario would catch on like the instance that is happening in Canada. 3,000 people signed up to buy a new Leaf for around 15-18K. 3,000 is like 3 times as many leafs sold in a whole year in Canada now. The market is there for the mass producing car makers when the batteries get up to 200+ range.

When you consider Tesla has a 5-10 year headstart on the others, the others will be going through all of their new start up type growing pains while Tesla is way past that.

Yes, the Chevys and Fords will likely make cheaper EVs, but Tesla isn't going that route, I believe the $35k one is the cheapest they're planning to go. I don't see how that's a big deal.

Then you have how much money they have to throw around using the Space X money to fund Tesla, I don't see how they won't be a long term player, especially considering how forward thinking Musk is. I mean think about it, these other companies are just getting into the electronic car game, and Musk is already moving on to Tesla trucks and buses and shit, he's just a step ahead as of right now.

shel311 wrote:

Crowes wrote:I just don't see how Tesla will be able to stay around long term and overcome all the new EVs coming to market over the next 5 years or so in Audi, BMW, Mecades for model S competition and Nissan and chevy for model 3 competition.

I wish the group buy scenario would catch on like the instance that is happening in Canada. 3,000 people signed up to buy a new Leaf for around 15-18K. 3,000 is like 3 times as many leafs sold in a whole year in Canada now. The market is there for the mass producing car makers when the batteries get up to 200+ range.

When you consider Tesla has a 5-10 year headstart on the others, the others will be going through all of their new start up type growing pains while Tesla is way past that.

Yes, the Chevys and Fords will likely make cheaper EVs, but Tesla isn't going that route, I believe the $35k one is the cheapest they're planning to go. I don't see how that's a big deal.

Then you have how much money they have to throw around using the Space X money to fund Tesla, I don't see how they won't be a long term player, especially considering how forward thinking Musk is. I mean think about it, these other companies are just getting into the electronic car game, and Musk is already moving on to Tesla trucks and buses and shit, he's just a step ahead as of right now.

Musk was the first one to start producing an actual car out but all the other car marker have been developing EVs for just as long but it just didnt make sense for them to produce a car when it would have had to be like the 75-100k model S. Musk deserves credit for pushing the EV market ahead at light speed so we are now getting all these other cars from other brands but a EV can roll down the same assembly with all the other gas powered cars so cost wont be that big of a deal to an established automaker. Also Musk released all of their EV patents several years ago so any technological advantage they had has to have shrunk alot.

With the creation of the gigafactory and being the worlds leader in ion production they will set the standard for battery production and manufacturing across the world at a price point we haven't seen yet.

Until other EV companies can match Teslas super charging infrastructure, completely grasp an EV car they want to fully support in their company, and have a design as good as Tesla they aren't going anywhere.

I think they will produce the 3 much faster than they did he S and X as they ramp up production and they say 2017 but I am with you and think they will be tesla timed to 2018 or beginning 2019.

With that being said, Teslas following is growing and I see people waiting for the 3 versus buying a ford or Nissan but who knows.

Either way I'm excited to join the revolution

I don't think Tesla wants to be apple. I think they want to be more of a company that pushes others to do good things. Apple innovation with noble intentions. Push technology to better the world (and, make a profit too if that works out)

Crowes wrote:I just don't see how Tesla will be able to stay around long term and overcome all the new EVs coming to market over the next 5 years or so in Audi, BMW, Mecades for model S competition and Nissan and chevy for model 3 competition.

The car is a tool for Tesla/Elon to reach their goals. They aren't really a 'car' company per se, even tho that's how most people try to rationalize the company.

think of like data collection companies that give away 'free' products or apps. they aren't in the biz of those products, they are in the business of collecting your info and selling. Tesla is establishing a network of people, companies (the very ones you think are their competitors) and countries who are moving to this type of energy usage. The gigafactory, solar city, etc etc are all just parts of their process to gain access to more people.

or a better example is to think of it like Amazon, they were an online book store to start. how could they survive with Borders and Barnes and Noble!!!?? once all those big stores with their vast amounts of resources catch on they'll crush this silly online bookstore!

Elon wasn't giving away patents cause he was worried about BMW or Audi would compete with them in a car building competition. he is trying to build a world of people moving away from non-renewable resources which he has positioned himself in the ideal space to achieve the success of that market increasing ...as Amazon positioned to sell products online by starting off selling something simple like books and when people became more comfortable they used their competitive advantage of customer satisfaction/familiarity to move to scale. Amazon didn't even try to turn a profit til a couple years ago as they just kept kicking the can in r&d. Elon is doing the same shit.

In terms of them 'surviving', there are lots of factors that go into a company 'surviving' and typically very few of them are dependent on the actual company themselves (unless say they are a fraud like Enron), its usually economy/ market related. there are PM's lined up to hand Elon money whenever he wants it. until that capital raising dries up, they'll be fine.

enough work type talk! time to go practice putting

congrats on the car corey! they are pretty sweet.

a few of my close buddies drive them and they are all as happy today as they were the day they got them. one of my boys got a supercharger in his condo by pitching Tesla. now 6 more people in the building bought Tesla's in the last 4 months since that happened.

DRiccio21 wrote:

Crowes wrote:I just don't see how Tesla will be able to stay around long term and overcome all the new EVs coming to market over the next 5 years or so in Audi, BMW, Mecades for model S competition and Nissan and chevy for model 3 competition.

The car is a tool for Tesla/Elon to reach their goals. They aren't really a 'car' company per se, even tho that's how most people try to rationalize the company.

think of like data collection companies that give away 'free' products or apps. they aren't in the biz of those products, they are in the business of collecting your info and selling. Tesla is establishing a network of people, companies (the very ones you think are their competitors) and countries who are moving to this type of energy usage. The gigafactory, solar city, etc etc are all just parts of their process to gain access to more people.

or a better example is to think of it like Amazon, they were an online book store to start. how could they survive with Borders and Barnes and Noble!!!?? once all those big stores with their vast amounts of resources catch on they'll crush this silly online bookstore!

Elon wasn't giving away patents cause he was worried about BMW or Audi would compete with them in a car building competition. he is trying to build a world of people moving away from non-renewable resources which he has positioned himself in the ideal space to achieve the success of that market increasing ...as Amazon positioned to sell products online by starting off selling something simple like books and when people became more comfortable they used their competitive advantage of customer satisfaction/familiarity to move to scale. Amazon didn't even try to turn a profit til a couple years ago as they just kept kicking the can in r&d. Elon is doing the same shit.

In terms of them 'surviving', there are lots of factors that go into a company 'surviving' and typically very few of them are dependent on the actual company themselves (unless say they are a fraud like Enron), its usually economy/ market related. there are PM's lined up to hand Elon money whenever he wants it. until that capital raising dries up, they'll be fine.

enough work type talk! time to go practice putting

A+ post here.

DRiccio21 wrote:

Crowes wrote:I just don't see how Tesla will be able to stay around long term and overcome all the new EVs coming to market over the next 5 years or so in Audi, BMW, Mecades for model S competition and Nissan and chevy for model 3 competition.

The car is a tool for Tesla/Elon to reach their goals. They aren't really a 'car' company per se, even tho that's how most people try to rationalize the company.

think of like data collection companies that give away 'free' products or apps. they aren't in the biz of those products, they are in the business of collecting your info and selling. Tesla is establishing a network of people, companies (the very ones you think are their competitors) and countries who are moving to this type of energy usage. The gigafactory, solar city, etc etc are all just parts of their process to gain access to more people.

or a better example is to think of it like Amazon, they were an online book store to start. how could they survive with Borders and Barnes and Noble!!!?? once all those big stores with their vast amounts of resources catch on they'll crush this silly online bookstore!

Elon wasn't giving away patents cause he was worried about BMW or Audi would compete with them in a car building competition. he is trying to build a world of people moving away from non-renewable resources which he has positioned himself in the ideal space to achieve the success of that market increasing ...as Amazon positioned to sell products online by starting off selling something simple like books and when people became more comfortable they used their competitive advantage of customer satisfaction/familiarity to move to scale. Amazon didn't even try to turn a profit til a couple years ago as they just kept kicking the can in r&d. Elon is doing the same shit.

In terms of them 'surviving', there are lots of factors that go into a company 'surviving' and typically very few of them are dependent on the actual company themselves (unless say they are a fraud like Enron), its usually economy/ market related. there are PM's lined up to hand Elon money whenever he wants it. until that capital raising dries up, they'll be fine.

enough work type talk! time to go practice putting

I hope they can make it but when you have hundreds of millions of dollars of negative cash flow from Tesla and Solarcity it just makes ya wonder how long investors will keeping giving them money with other companies catching up.

I understand your references but Tesla just doesnt seem like its in same boat as Amazon when it comes to other companies as far as capital needed by tesla vs amazon. They arent gonna create a new wheel when it comes to car manufacturing so they more then likely will never make money selling cars. They can revolutionize the whole home battery market but that too is decades away from profit. Just seems like a long time to be given the billions of dollars they need to stay afloat.

institutional investors will keep giving them money as long as the economy/mkt is conducive to lending money... there are plenty of monster institutions who realize he is one of the greatest minds of our generation and his desire to innovate with a longer time frame is rare in a world of 'get rich quick and flip it' mentality of executives.

if we go into a devastating recession or a bear mkt, chances are they'd be in trouble as money would dry up and they would have a tougher time with capital raises. when you have debt in an environment like that, its going to be challenging obviously. if that doesn't happen, they will keep getting whatever they need as long as they need it assuming they don't do something rogue or totally crazy.

if you do a simple google search of Amazon from 2000-2010 and write the word 'overvalued' you'll find about 2000000 articles with comments similar to yours about TSLA talking about Amazon's market cap. people who are trying to use a economics background to understand how markets and growth companies work.

http://www.lonelyvalue.com/2010_04_01_archive.html here is one i found pretty quick from 2010, i'm sure they'd be a lot worse if i went back to 2003 or so when they were burning thru way more cash with less rev's. at the time the guy is commenting how irrational a 66 bil mkt cap is for AMZN, today that mkt cap is roughly 370 bil

in re: TSLA there are only a handful of stocks that have been up each of the past 6 years, TSLA is one of them despite it being relatively flat the last few years. but that's a completely different situation. doesn't mean the stock can't go down considerably in the future, it absolutely can. but a stock going down or up and a company surviving is not remotely the same.

Another 35+ putt round coming up!!!

Dave is on point here and as much an Elon fan as me if not more and is way smarter than me in the financial piece as we have had this talk.

Regarding the actual car, when I took the test drive I was absolutely blown away. Even my wife not a car person said "we have to get this". That was enough for me

No doubt it is an incredible car.
Enjoy!

The I8 is the only thing in the current realm of what Tesla has put out. I don't expect Tesla to come with anything lower than the 3. What you're getting in a model S, beyond the electric factor, is top class. These aren't run of the mill cars. In terms of what they do produce, I fully expect them to blow everyone out of the water with the rumored P100D and it's 380 mile range. When you consider what you're getting for the money, it's pretty impressive. On top of that, as others have mentioned, it's really about the bigger picture for them.