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Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:28 am
by Cnasty
I think we will see limited openings of some businesses and states releasing their orders around May 10th
Thats my uneducated lottery guess!
I hope sooner.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:31 am
by GeorgesGoons
Cnasty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:28 am
I think we will see limited openings of some businesses and states releasing their orders around May 10th
Thats my uneducated lottery guess!
I hope sooner.
I didn't get to your second line and was wondering how you came up with May 10th.
I wonder if there is online betting we can bet on this, kinda of like Roulette. This will get the guys here that like to bet back into the groove, Billy place your bet
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:34 am
by nick
0% chance
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:34 am
by Cnasty
Throw out some random dates.
Lets see who hits!
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:34 am
by nick
January 2021
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:37 am
by GeorgesGoons
May 21st.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:39 am
by nick
shel311 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:25 am
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
US projected deaths, as early as I can remember started at 2.2 million. Then went down, then down again, then we got the 100k-200k number from Fauci.
Now this site has it peaking at 81k.
Hopefully we get a couple more new projections trending down before it's all said and done.
That 80k is projected for August if everything is locked down til then. People wanna be back at work in May I can almost assure you that number will be very wrong
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:44 am
by GeorgesGoons
nick wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:39 am
shel311 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:25 am
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
US projected deaths, as early as I can remember started at 2.2 million. Then went down, then down again, then we got the 100k-200k number from Fauci.
Now this site has it peaking at 81k.
Hopefully we get a couple more new projections trending down before it's all said and done.
That 80k is projected for August if everything is locked down til then. People wanna be back at work in May I can almost assure you that number will be very wrong
I thought the same thing that you are saying, then I read this:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... worst-case
Members of President Donald Trump’s health team last week suggested between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths over the next two months from the coronavirus pandemic.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:45 am
by nick
UK prime minister is on Oxygen
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:48 am
by ReignOnU
I think there's pretty good justification to push stuff to mid-May, as long as the stimulus is delivered within the next 3 weeks. I think most of the workforce is back up by June 1. Could be restrictions on certain age groups, how a business operates (takeout only) or spacing in an area (table distances, aisle widths/directional, etc). I believe we'll have some sports on Father's Day, even if it's without fans there.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:48 am
by Wasted Memory
June 1st
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:49 am
by Cnasty
A popular tourist park in China yesterday
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:50 am
by ReignOnU
Speaking of sports... a lot of chatter on social media today about sports timelines. I know they had the meeting last week, so I assume that's where this is coming from.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:52 am
by GeorgesGoons
ReignOnU wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:50 am
Speaking of sports... a lot of chatter on social media today about sports timelines. I know they had the meeting last week, so I assume that's where this is coming from.
And Dana White is hell bent on putting on UFC 249, although we won't get Khabib vs Tony.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:58 am
by ReignOnU
One thing I'm struggling to wrap my head around in terms of time line... and I know things aren't linear, but it's not quite making sense to me...
Order of events:
- NY starts seeing a lot of cases
- Ohio jumps out in front and starts implementing drastic measures before most other states
- NY continues to grow with issues over the next 2 weeks
- Ohio is 'slowing the spread' and 'lowering the curve' in our region
- Ohio has a peak date listed as of April 9th
- NY has over 100k active cases as of today
- When restrictions are pulled back, how is it possible that Ohio doesn't blow up? In theory, our population hasn't actually seen the peak of the virus because we've done more to delay it.
I guess what I'm getting at is that there's absolutely no way that the 'peak' for Ohio is April 9th and in fact, because of the early measures, our peak will be much later than others.
(This theory probably holds true for other states that acted early or are more centrally located and haven't seen a rise in cases yet.)
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:05 am
by nick
Btw every country is under reporting their deaths. America has “10 000” deaths but experts think (know) its way higher. But that applies to everywhere
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:07 am
by nick
The best part of this is golf events are being cancelled.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:10 am
by Weasel
ReignOnU wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:58 am
One thing I'm struggling to wrap my head around in terms of time line... and I know things aren't linear, but it's not quite making sense to me...
Order of events:
- NY starts seeing a lot of cases
- Ohio jumps out in front and starts implementing drastic measures before most other states
- NY continues to grow with issues over the next 2 weeks
- Ohio is 'slowing the spread' and 'lowering the curve' in our region
- Ohio has a peak date listed as of April 9th
- NY has over 100k active cases as of today
- When restrictions are pulled back, how is it possible that Ohio doesn't blow up? In theory, our population hasn't actually seen the peak of the virus because we've done more to delay it.
I guess what I'm getting at is that there's absolutely no way that the 'peak' for Ohio is April 9th and in fact, because of the early measures, our peak will be much later than others.
(This theory probably holds true for other states that acted early or are more centrally located and haven't seen a rise in cases yet.)
Part of the problem with distancing too early: If you resume to business as usual afterwards, youve simply pushed the peaked back. Hospitals still overwhelmed, just at a later date.
nick wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:45 am
UK prime minister is on Oxygen
While Im not trying to minimize this, being on oxygen doesnt tell me much. Its doesnt take much to be put on O2 in the hospital. That being said, Id be alarmed if he gets transferred to the ICU, which means intubation could be next. From docs Ive spoken with anecdotally, mortality once intubated is quite high
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:12 am
by ReignOnU
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... dview.html
Most current data from the CDC. Specifically look at the chart below. This is mortality of pneumonia and influenza. In late Jan and Feb it soars, peaking around 11%. For historical reference, a 'big' seasonal peak is 8%.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:15 am
by Crowes
Hmmmmm. Definitely left wing hack journalism...
