I don't think TOP is a direct correlation to winning. Naturally, if a team is a winning, in most cases they are putting together sustainable drives, not 3 and outs, and TOP is the result of winning not the cause. I don't think John Fox is going to go out and tell the Panthers this week to milk the play clock to :01 every second because if we control TOP we are going to win.
Bernie32 wrote:I don't think TOP is a direct correlation to winning. Naturally, if a team is a winning, in most cases they are putting together sustainable drives, not 3 and outs, and TOP is the result of winning not the cause. I don't think John Fox is going to go out and tell the Panthers this week to milk the play clock to :01 every second because if we control TOP we are going to win.
The first article that introduced me to my love affair of a website - advancednflstats.com - and really opened up my eyes to a lot of the underbelly of the game.
I believe TOP is an “intermediate outcome” in a football game. In other words, it is a natural byproduct of being good at something else. You can’t be good at “time of possession.”
If we want to measure the strength of a team and how likely they are to win games—future games—we don’t want to look at the intermediate outcomes. Intermediate outcomes inject noise from sample error into the process and obscure the root causes of success or failure. To me, TOP is a side-effect of being good at other, more fundamental things.
Of course, late in a game with a small lead, the ability to run out the clock can be critical. But there is no such thing as “running out the clock.” The clock just runs. To run out the clock, a team needs to simply run, or sometimes pass, successfully. Even in this situation, when TOP appears critically important, it’s a byproduct of basic abilities.
LetsGoPeay wrote:Sure Garcon is fast and runs good routes... when he's running the correct route. I've watched every minute of every Colts game since... forever. I can't count the number of times where I've seen Manning bitch at Garcon because he wasn't where he was supposed to be. I can think of at least three Manning INT's this year that were due to Garcon running the wrong route. Then there's all the dropped balls that went right through his hands. Right now Garcon is a huge example of a risk/reward player. Last year he was probably 80/20 in favor of reward. This year he's breaking even or even slightly negative.
I agree with this, i ve had Garcon on my fantasy team, dropped him, picked him back up....Tonight is the first time in a long while where he may actually put up some nice points. I mean a 9 or 10 here or there but nothing outstanding. Tonight hes got 2 Td's as of now.
DRiccio21 wrote:my fantasy team wished you watched more then 2 games this season
he finally played good thsi week when i am playing for nothing
Why do you have that bum on your fantasy team?
cause i thought Peyton could make anyone good. and i traded away just about everything to get Peyton, CJ (wait i mean CJ2k for VVV), MJD, and St. Jackson and the Steelers d.
my wr's sucked so i just figured i'd roll with Garcon and then a waiver pickup or hines ward each week. of course even tho that team had 4 first round picks, it couldn't get me out of the bottom half.