NFL Thread

[ReignOnU]

I'm a Belichick fan. For those that watched the game on Sunday night... what did you think of his decision to take the wind and not the ball during OT? I know the guy is huge into statistical analysis, but I just can't fathom giving up the ball when your offense has ripped off 31 points like that and if you score a TD, the game is over. Even if you're confident in your defense and believe Manning can't play in the elements, you still don't give the Broncos a chance to win the game without your offense touching the field and pass on a chance to win the game outright, without giving Manning a shot. I think he made the wrong call and ended up getting very lucky.

[ReignOnU]

From Belichick's press conference yesterday:

Spoiler!

“Well, you never want to give Peyton Manning and that offense, you never want to just hand them the ball, but I just felt in that particular situation, with the wind being as significant as it was, that we just had to stop them from getting into the end zone. If we could do that, then we would have a significant advantage in the overtime period. We just had to make one stop and keep them out of the end zone. Even if they drove down and kicked a field goal, I felt like in that game, the field goal to kick going into the lighthouse, you’d have to get the ball to the 25 to be confident in making it. Depending on how the wind was gusting, you might even have to get it to the 20. Whereas going the other way, I think you could definitely get the ball to the uprights from probably anywhere inside the 45-yard line. Now, getting it in-between them was more of a challenge because of the crosswind and everything else. But at least to have a shot to make it, I felt like there was about a 20-yard difference in field position to just attempt a field goal, let’s put it that way.

“I’m saying getting to the 25 on one end, to the 45 on the other. You could fudge a yard or two there, but basically that’s what it looked like to me at that time. I felt like that was a big enough advantage to try to keep the wind. As it turned out, the punting game also was a factor in that too. Had we had the ball and not been able to score and be punting into the wind and all that, like I said, with their kicker and his distance, it wouldn’t have taken much for them to be in field goal range. I felt like, ‘Well, if that’s the way we feel about it, we might as well put them in that situation.’ That’s kind of the thought process there.

“To tell you the truth, the whole situation was a little bit confusing because when I told the captains that, there was a little bit of a question of, are you talking about deferring. I was like, ‘No, we’re not deferring, we’re taking the wind, period.’ ‘Well, is that if they take the ball?’ ‘No, it’s not if they take the ball.’ We actually, with the captains, had a little bit of a conversation that they had right what I wanted to do, because it was a little bit of an, obviously, unusual type of situation. They were doing a good job. They just wanted to make sure that they had the decision that we felt was best and we got it. It was not one of the normal ones.”

So I started looking around a few sites to get some more information on the strategy and it does appear that he made the right call. The reality is that Denver had a pretty small chance of getting a touchdown and at best was likely to get a FG. Even in that case, it would still stand the NE outright wins the game if they get a TD. On top of that, factoring in the potential advantage of being able to kick a FG from longer range, would make it acceptable for them to tie in a dire situation. Another thing to factor in is if Den did get a FG, NE would know that they needed the TD to win it outright, so they would be going for it on 4th downs on their own end.

Definitely interesting to really think about a decision like that.

[shel311]

That is good stuff.

I read a pretty interesting article on the Advanced NFL Stats site talking about the most fair way to work overtime. Using the data, it was determined that if a tem starts a drive at the 15 yardline, statistically speaking there is no advantage. When team's start at the 15, they basically score the next score 50% of the time. Just thought that was interesting and a different take on how to make OT a more fair process and do away with the silly coin toss. They also mentioned you could just give the home team the ball at the 15, thus doing away with that coin toss.

I'd be all for that, start at the 15, home team gets the ball, sudden death.

[ajalves]

That is good stuff.

I read a pretty interesting article on the Advanced NFL Stats site talking about the most fair way to work overtime. Using the data, it was determined that if a tem starts a drive at the 15 yardline, statistically speaking there is no advantage. When team's start at the 15, they basically score the next score 50% of the time. Just thought that was interesting and a different take on how to make OT a more fair process and do away with the silly coin toss. They also mentioned you could just give the home team the ball at the 15, thus doing away with that coin toss.

I'd be all for that, start at the 15, home team gets the ball, sudden death.

why should home team get the ball?

[shel311]

That is good stuff.

I read a pretty interesting article on the Advanced NFL Stats site talking about the most fair way to work overtime. Using the data, it was determined that if a tem starts a drive at the 15 yardline, statistically speaking there is no advantage. When team's start at the 15, they basically score the next score 50% of the time. Just thought that was interesting and a different take on how to make OT a more fair process and do away with the silly coin toss. They also mentioned you could just give the home team the ball at the 15, thus doing away with that coin toss.

I'd be all for that, start at the 15, home team gets the ball, sudden death.

why should home team get the ball?

Ok, give it to the away team. Why does it matter?

[ajalves]

That is good stuff.

I read a pretty interesting article on the Advanced NFL Stats site talking about the most fair way to work overtime. Using the data, it was determined that if a tem starts a drive at the 15 yardline, statistically speaking there is no advantage. When team's start at the 15, they basically score the next score 50% of the time. Just thought that was interesting and a different take on how to make OT a more fair process and do away with the silly coin toss. They also mentioned you could just give the home team the ball at the 15, thus doing away with that coin toss.

I'd be all for that, start at the 15, home team gets the ball, sudden death.

why should home team get the ball?

Ok, give it to the away team. Why does it matter?

Just seems arbitrary to just give it to the home team

[shel311]

If it's a 50/50 thing, then it doesn't matter.

The only solution is to go back to the coin toss, and even though it's 50/50, the idea is to move away from the whole coin toss thing.

[ajalves]

If it's a 50/50 thing, then it doesn't matter.

The only solution is to go back to the coin toss, and even though it's 50/50, the idea is to move away from the whole coin toss thing.

if both are 50/50 why do we need to move away from the coin toss? is there an anti coin toss movement i've missed out on?

[steelcitychaos]

Belicheck has a way of making things work that dont seem logical. I was at the Monday night game in 2003 where Belicheck pulled one out in Denver

Patriots take safety for field position



DENVER (AP) -- The New England Patriots overcame their injuries with a healthy quarterback and a coach who made one of the shrewdest calls of the NFL season.
The Denver Broncos, equally banged up, couldn't overcome their problems.
Tom Brady threw an 18-yard touchdown pass to David Givens with 30 seconds left Monday night to give the Patriots a 30-26 win over the Broncos and their fifth straight victory.
It came after coach Bill Belichick's call for a deliberate safety with his team, trailing 24-23, backed up on their own 1 on fourth down with 2:49 left.
The safety made Denver's lead 26-23, but it gave New England punting room and Ken Walter's free kick put the Broncos back to their own 15. The Broncos went three and out and New England had to drive just 58 yards after getting the ball back with 2:15 left after using two timeouts
"I think that was the best call of the game," Givens said. "Our coaches knew that we have a great field-goal kicker. The offense was moving the ball all game and either we were going to get three and go to overtime or score a touchdown.".

[shel311]

if both are 50/50 why do we need to move away from the coin toss?

If both are 50/50 what is the issue with giving the home team the ball first? How is that more arbitrary than a coin toss?

[ajalves]

if both are 50/50 why do we need to move away from the coin toss?

If both are 50/50 what is the issue with giving the home team the ball first? How is that more arbitrary than a coin toss?

why change at all if they are the same?

[shel311]

if both are 50/50 why do we need to move away from the coin toss?

If both are 50/50 what is the issue with giving the home team the ball first? How is that more arbitrary than a coin toss?

why change at all if they are the same?

Can we get any further from the actual point of the post I made?

Again, If both are 50/50 what is the issue with giving the home team the ball first? How is that more arbitrary than a coin toss

[ReignOnU]

Should still be a coin toss.

Your scenario factors all situations... what if there is a 40mph head wind? Now I want to choose my side of the field.

[ajalves]

if both are 50/50 why do we need to move away from the coin toss?

If both are 50/50 what is the issue with giving the home team the ball first? How is that more arbitrary than a coin toss?

why change at all if they are the same?

Can we get any further from the actual point of the post I made?

Again, If both are 50/50 what is the issue with giving the home team the ball first? How is that more arbitrary than a coin toss

what was the point? you dont like a coin toss?

[shel311]

if both are 50/50 why do we need to move away from the coin toss?

If both are 50/50 what is the issue with giving the home team the ball first? How is that more arbitrary than a coin toss?

why change at all if they are the same?

Can we get any further from the actual point of the post I made?

Again, If both are 50/50 what is the issue with giving the home team the ball first? How is that more arbitrary than a coin toss

what was the point? you dont like a coin toss?

Right over your head #2 today.

The point was clearly explained in the first sentence of my first post. Not sure how much more clear it could have been

[DRiccio21]

what percentage of shel's posts end in a LOL or

I'm gonna go with 85%.

nothing wrong with it, just a funny habit

[ajalves]

The point was clearly explained in the first sentence of my first post. Not sure how much more clear it could have been

it is?

you said the the coin toss was a "silly process" then proceeded to say "just give it to the home team"

i then said "why the home team"

you said "then the away team"

if there is no difference between who gets it, why do away with the coin toss?

[shel311]

The point was clearly explained in the first sentence of my first post. Not sure how much more clear it could have been

it is?

you said the the coin toss was a "silly process" then proceeded to say "just give it to the home team"

i then said "why the home team"

you said "then the away team"

if there is no difference between who gets it, why do away with the coin toss?

read the first sentence, how is that not clear?

I feel like I'm being punked right now.

[ajalves]

give me a break man. you say "so we can do away with the silly coin toss"

whats silly about it?

its 50-50, how does it favor one over another?

[ReignOnU]

Back to my thought...

Does a team get to start on the 25 if it's snowing? Or do they get pushed back to the 10 if it's sunny and 70? What if they are with/against the wind?