Fanduel / Draft Kings Discussion

[shel311]

I can see why both companies may want to disallow employees with this type of access from playing on other sites, but I really don't see much of an issue with this, maybe I'm missing something.

So, what exactly is this latest scandal?

A DraftKings employee, Ethan Haskell, had access to DraftKings ownership data, meaning that he could see which NFL players had been selected by DraftKings users, and by how many users. That likely helped him select his own lineup on FanDuel, because the two sites work the same way

[DRiccio21]

you're absolutely missing something.

having that info is huge.

[nick]

ya thats a pretty big deal

you get to see the elite of the elite in DFS's picks and you can get ideas, even copy their work and also find fade material. if youre on 2 HBs who u think might have equal numbers and one is 25% owned and the other 5%, you'll prolly side with 5% to give yourself an advantage.

DFS ppl i follow on twitter weren't happy.

[DRiccio21]

in reality whether a worker plays on a different site is a silly conversation. its the ability for people to see that data.

if you work for FD or DK and you have that data there are going to be people lined up out the door for that info (and probably already are). or you can just give the data to a one off who plays it for you

[ReignOnU]

now there is an article that the guy who is the algorithm expert to create player values is a top 50 ranked player and plays on draftkings.

shit is going down.

100% believe it. A lot of the early pioneers of DFS ended up working with/for the companies somehow. If I was willing to move to NY, I think I would have had a great shot to be working for Fan Duel today. Just wasn't really something I was up for. I had a great relationship with quite a few of their early 'execs.'

[nick]

128/5700 and that Megatron foolishness cost me top 30ish finish. yuck. oh well just killing time til NBA

[shel311]

in reality whether a worker plays on a different site is a silly conversation. its the ability for people to see that data.

I guess I don't see why it's silly since he has data for 1 site and is playing on a different site.

I've heard the insider trading comparison. It feels more like, to steal from someone else I've read, this would be like if a guy working in finance at a big firm had access to a great algorithm of the firm and used that to invest on his own, finding great success.


I guess my point is, does it seem shady or strange or like FD and DK should probably put a stop to employees playing on other sites? Yes. Is it a crazy scandal like some of the things we heard about with online poker? Not even close.

[DRiccio21]

in reality whether a worker plays on a different site is a silly conversation. its the ability for people to see that data.

I guess I don't see why it's silly since he has data for 1 site and is playing on a different site.

I've heard the insider trading comparison. It feels more like, to steal from someone else I've read, this would be like if a guy working in finance at a big firm had access to a great algorithm of the firm and used that to invest on his own, finding great success.


I guess my point is, does it seem shady or strange or like FD and DK should probably put a stop to employees playing on other sites? Yes. Is it a crazy scandal like some of the things we heard about with online poker? Not even close.

i'm not saying you, in particular, but it's amazing the reactions out there of it's 'not that big of a deal' because it seems like vast majority of people aren't even aware of how these 'sharks' perform better and what data is important for them to have/know.

it's not like that analogy at all. in finance you play against yourself, there is no opponent.

you're looking at the value in daily fantasy as simply finding the most points possible to score with the highest probability. that's not the case. there is game theory involved. finding the % usage is as valuable as just about anything. we often think that the 'best' lineup is the highest probability lineup to score the most points. that's not the case. you want the highest probability lineup that is the most unique without lowering your overall probability. so for example... if everyone used Karlos Williams last week in fanduel and he was 90% owned and Devonta Freeman was projected in your algo to score 1 point less but was similar price and only owned in 10%, there is huge value in owning Freeman, even tho his projection might be to score less than Williams. Nobody KNOWS the future (obviously) so all we're playing is probability so that 1 pt difference isn't as important as the 80% difference in ownership.

having the access to data like that is hugely unfair. is it the same as knowing what cards the opponent has, not that bad. but it's giving an edge and all these big players are looking for/need is a 1% edge over everyone else. when they have that they can play thousands of games to capitalize on that edge

[ReignOnU]

The spreadsheets I've sent you guys and told you about aren't too far off of their algorithm. Instead of finding the ROI, they used the projections to create their values with a tendency towards "recent" performance and not moving far off. I went through numerous discussions on player value calculations with Fan Duel. Back before DraftKings existed, player valuation was one of the biggest separators of the quality in the sites. I remember a specific 3 week stretch where FD didn't change their hockey values and there was a run of 2 incredibly well valued defenders that resulted in a few 100% usage tournaments (50-100 players).

About 3 years ago, the only stats sites that the DFS companies had contracts with were their game stats providers (STATS inc, etc). Since then, most have partnered up with major companies to get their inside analysis and use it in their valuations. The funny thing is, it seems to be the same data (maybe with a strong sway to recent history) as the sites are selling to the general public.

Don't overthink these fantasy sites... they aren't masterminds like you'd expect. The industry has exploded, but just 4-5 years ago they were being run by some pretty run-of-the-mill people (from a fantasy sports standpoint) who just happened to have a shitload of money/financial backing and saw the tremendous opportunity to get into the industry.

[ReignOnU]

in reality whether a worker plays on a different site is a silly conversation. its the ability for people to see that data.

I guess I don't see why it's silly since he has data for 1 site and is playing on a different site.

I've heard the insider trading comparison. It feels more like, to steal from someone else I've read, this would be like if a guy working in finance at a big firm had access to a great algorithm of the firm and used that to invest on his own, finding great success.


I guess my point is, does it seem shady or strange or like FD and DK should probably put a stop to employees playing on other sites? Yes. Is it a crazy scandal like some of the things we heard about with online poker? Not even close.

i'm not saying you, in particular, but it's amazing the reactions out there of it's 'not that big of a deal' because it seems like vast majority of people aren't even aware of how these 'sharks' perform better and what data is important for them to have/know.

it's not like that analogy at all. in finance you play against yourself, there is no opponent.

you're looking at the value in daily fantasy as simply finding the most points possible to score with the highest probability. that's not the case. there is game theory involved. finding the % usage is as valuable as just about anything. we often think that the 'best' lineup is the highest probability lineup to score the most points. that's not the case. you want the highest probability lineup that is the most unique without lowering your overall probability. so for example... if everyone used Karlos Williams last week in fanduel and he was 90% owned and Devonta Freeman was projected in your algo to score 1 point less but was similar price and only owned in 10%, there is huge value in owning Freeman, even tho his projection might be to score less than Williams. Nobody KNOWS the future (obviously) so all we're playing is probability so that 1 pt difference isn't as important as the 80% difference in ownership.

having the access to data like that is hugely unfair. is it the same as knowing what cards the opponent has, not that bad. but it's giving an edge and all these big players are looking for/need is a 1% edge over everyone else. when they have that they can play thousands of games to capitalize on that edge

I'm not sure that I ever discussed how I destroyed the 30-50 man tournaments... but this concept was a major factor. You're spot on here.

[shel311]

you're looking at the value in daily fantasy as simply finding the most points possible to score with the highest probability. that's not the case. there is game theory involved. finding the % usage is as valuable as just about anything. we often think that the 'best' lineup is the highest probability lineup to score the most points. that's not the case. you want the highest probability lineup that is the most unique without lowering your overall probability. so for example... if everyone used Karlos Williams last week in fanduel and he was 90% owned and Devonta Freeman was projected in your algo to score 1 point less but was similar price and only owned in 10%, there is huge value in owning Freeman, even tho his projection might be to score less than Williams. Nobody KNOWS the future (obviously) so all we're playing is probability so that 1 pt difference isn't as important as the 80% difference in ownership.

I'm not looking at it like that and totally understand how the bigger tournies work in terms of ownership.

I still think this is a major scandal since the 2 sites don't use the same salaries for every player. I obviously get that having that info is still certainly helpful, and i've said they probably don't want to engage in that practice going forward, but I still don't think it's the major scandal that rocks DFS and eventually has it shut down.

[ReignOnU]

No, it's not going to shut it down, but it's more eyes on it. I mentioned it a few weeks ago... DFS is going to be in major trouble soon. If I were still actively playing at a high level, I'd keep less than a few K on a site and have everything else sitting in my PayPal account.

[DRiccio21]

you're looking at the value in daily fantasy as simply finding the most points possible to score with the highest probability. that's not the case. there is game theory involved. finding the % usage is as valuable as just about anything. we often think that the 'best' lineup is the highest probability lineup to score the most points. that's not the case. you want the highest probability lineup that is the most unique without lowering your overall probability. so for example... if everyone used Karlos Williams last week in fanduel and he was 90% owned and Devonta Freeman was projected in your algo to score 1 point less but was similar price and only owned in 10%, there is huge value in owning Freeman, even tho his projection might be to score less than Williams. Nobody KNOWS the future (obviously) so all we're playing is probability so that 1 pt difference isn't as important as the 80% difference in ownership.

I'm not looking at it like that and totally understand how the bigger tournies work in terms of ownership.

I still think this is a major scandal since the 2 sites don't use the same salaries for every player. I obviously get that having that info is still certainly helpful, and i've said they probably don't want to engage in that practice going forward, but I still don't think it's the major scandal that rocks DFS and eventually has it shut down.

try to think of it on a larger scale, not you or I playing a few hundred dollars of fantasy a month

there are guys who are playing hundreds of thousands of dollars per night. they don't play that much cause they know the future, they play that much cause they believe they have a 1% (or in reality probably a 15-20% edge on the little guys). in the past when there was so many idiots playing it was enough to just be 'smarter' and understand probability. now that there is access to theories and strategies and sites that give the algo's out for free basically, everyone knows the 'best lineups. so the value comes in being unique and finding the players to fade. so this type of info has huge value to the big guys.

the big guys who might have had a 15-20% edge vs the little guy might be down to 5-10% now. and vs other top guys they might be at a 2 or 3% edge. still enough for them to be profitable, but not as profitable. if this data can give them a slightly higher edge (say 1 or 2%) over other big money guys they can play hundreds of games daily and thousands over the course of a year and that 1 or 2 % edge is hugely profitable.

when it comes to money its not about knowing whats going to happen, its about finding an 'edge'. same in stocks as it is in DFS as it is in anything that involves speculation.

[DRiccio21]

No, it's not going to shut it down, but it's more eyes on it. I mentioned it a few weeks ago... DFS is going to be in major trouble soon. If I were still actively playing at a high level, I'd keep less than a few K on a site and have everything else sitting in my PayPal account.

i highly doubt that money gets tied up in those sites the way people had issues with other sites.

it's too mainstream and involved with too many huge entities for them to have peoples money 'stuck'.

i'm not saying i'd have 6 figures in a site either, tho.

[ReignOnU]

There was just as much, if not more money tied up in Full Tilt Poker. The government doesn't care about our money... especially if they think they should have a chunk of it.

[ReignOnU]

Hey shel... you want to cause a real shitstorm?

Background... the DK analyst in question is Ethan. He started as a basic CS rep for DraftStreet and came over during the acquisition. He was a former player that DS hired to be 'in touch' with the current community on Rotogrinders. Just a basic DFS guy that worked his way into a company.

My favorite post of his:
"absolutely couldnt agree with you more. at the end of the day youre gambling. and when you gamble, you can get hurt by bad luck"

https://rotogrinders.com/threads/fantas ... eply-30033

Not taken out of context whatsoever. Gotta love an employee tossing those lines around...

[ReignOnU]

Doesn't appear that he had access to any valuation data, just the ownership data to write his article on the big event. With that said, if he's been getting fed the ownership data for a few months, it could explain his recent string of winnings. There's another side of me that says it's all a fluke and the guy just happened to get hot and this leak occurred around the same time.

In the end, it may not matter much. It looks like Cal @ Rotogrinders is doing everything he can to back Ethan, including deleting questionable posts and knowing the guys that run DK, they are going to do whatever is necessary to cover this up. Their ownership is pretty cutthroat.

[DRiccio21]

There was just as much, if not more money tied up in Full Tilt Poker. The government doesn't care about our money... especially if they think they should have a chunk of it.

disagree.

it has nothing to do with the amount of money tied up. its about who's taking their ad money.

[DRiccio21]

Doesn't appear that he had access to any valuation data, just the ownership data to write his article on the big event. With that said, if he's been getting fed the ownership data for a few months, it could explain his recent string of winnings. There's another side of me that says it's all a fluke and the guy just happened to get hot and this leak occurred around the same time.

if you gave me a choice of valuation data or ownership data, i'd take ownership data 100 out of 100 times

[shel311]

I'm confused here. This guy was a DK employee who hit big on an FD tourney, correct? I was reading and found this:

What led to this scandal?

On Sunday, Sept. 27, Haskell posted the percentage owned chart for the Week 3 Millionaire Maker competition. This chart shows what percent of entrants in the competition “own” each player. The problem is Haskell posted this prior to the start of some of the remaining games that week

How could he post ownership charts for a week 3 matchup before it started on FD if he only has DK ownership data?