Wasted Memory wrote:I feel like dak needs to weigh in on this. I just think he'd have a good algorithm for figuring out the records.
It's difficult to project anyone's small series set (6-7 games) against Boston to a larger 18-19 game set.
For anyone that played a lot against Boston and would drop to a smaller number of games, you can similarly have disparities for small sets. So someone that was 4-14 against Boston (0.222 winning pct) could just as easily be 3-4 against them in two series.
As for how someone would perform against the league in general with removing 18 games against Boston and getting 18 games against other teams - your best option may be removing all runs scored and runs against for Boston games from their 162 game set and determining their resulting run differential (and extrapolate it back to a 162 game sample size). I would think there is a reasonable method of determining their record over those 18 games based on run differential when you compare that differential to other teams with similar differentials around the league and their winning %s as well.
Completely moving divisions is a gargantuan analysis. I would probably start by checking the teams winning % against teams above 0.500 and below 0.500 and then determining how many teams in their new division meet those criteria. That could get you an estimate of their division record and intra-division records depending on conference. You would most likely also need to introduce some randomness to the algorithm and flip the bit on a few 1s and 0s to match baseball reality. So, just because a team may have a 0.66 winning pct against other teams that are below .500, you wouldn't make every 3 game set be a 2-1 W v L for them. You sprinkle in a 1-2 series 10% of the time, or something along those lines.
And then you realize it's OOTP baseball and crumple up all the math and throw it away. It's won by digital hearts bursting out of digital chests while unseen fans cry 1s and 0s and hug in the nonexistent stands when their team from 33 years in the future wins it all.
