This is probably the first week this year where when teams filled out their polls really mattered.
From the times the polls opened to close, Northwestern had a bit of a statement win, Utah rolled again in its return, Alabama beat Tennessee, Ole Miss beat LSU, Baylor beat Texas Tech, and Oklahoma beat Texas.
As there has been, a lot of the top is shuffling around of the same teams, but there is more of it than usual and will be more of it next week. While the CFP doesn’t necessarily go with the rankings we can at least gain some insights.
1. Texas (1)
Jiggy retained the top spot but as mentioned above lost to Oklahoma. Ole Miss probably takes this spot over next week as long as he remains unbeaten.
2. Ole Miss (6)
The win over LSU jumped him up to the 2 spot and. There aren’t many undefeated P4 schools left, and he is the only one with a real statement win.
3. Oregon (4)
Was able to move up a spot and will likely stay in this range all season. I can see 1 loss SEC teams staying above him just because the lack of a schedule.
4. Clemson (7)
Jumped up a couple spots taking advantage of the LSU loss, also jumped over Georgia for some reason. The lighter non SEC schedule should keep him up here.
5. Georgia (2)
The big faller so far. It wont help that he lost another game to Florida since the polls came out.
6. LSU (5)
Dropped one spot. The week prior he was lower because of lack of games played. I can’t tell if the loss effected much as with a full schedule he is probably 1-2 before the loss and then dropping here after it.
7. Alabama (8)
Massive game this block with Missouri. Both teams with their season on the line a little bit. Bama with a loss gets their second on the season and has to play “I hope” ball for a bit.
8. Missouri (9)
Speaking of massive game. Missouri losing it would drop them to just 1 loss on the season, but it would raise a ton of eyebrows. It would be crazy for a 1 loss SEC team to not get into the CFP, but could it happen?
9. Utah (10)
Been MIA for a few weeks with the move, but back and destroying teams. Could easily see him climbing into the top 6 after this block.
10. Colorado (14)
Climbed up taking advantage of losses from the other teams on the outside looking in on the top 12. Like Missouri, being undefeated to this point isn’t a crazy shock, but would 1 loss be too much for the committee in an SEC heavy season.
11. Texas Tech (11)
This is one where a lot of polls were probably submitted prior to the Baylor loss. I would assume he slips down to the low teens.
12. Tennessee (3)
One of the big fallers from this block. The first of the big guns to take a second loss in the regular season and he falls behind a lot of the 0 and 1 loss teams. Still finds himself ahead of Florida who beat him. That flip should happen this week though.
13. Florida (16)
The early loss hurt, but it has also let him slowly creep up as teams go down. His schedule is absurd the rest of the way though. With 1 loss he seems like a lock, with 2 he could still get in.
14. Notre Dame (14)
Not making the climb back up that Florida is. No conference championship game could play a massive part in his CFP hopes. The USC game at the end of the year will get a big circle. He can’t make it in without that win.
15. Washington State (18)
No real knock to Liq, but I will be lower on the Cougars for most of the season because of the lack of competition. They are a G5 team disguised as a P4 because of the oddity of the Pac 12. Been harping on the schedule for a while, a schedule that sits on the level of Charlotte, FAU, Arkansas State at 108th overall. He would have to be inside the top 11 to get into the CFP. Even at undefeated I don’t know how you can put him above the likes of a 2 loss Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, etc.
16. Northwestern (22)
The hype will be short lived as he lost to Iowa over the weekend. The losses were always likely coming with a back loaded Big 10 schedule. But the Wisconsin win was a big one. He still has Ohio State and Michigan, but I don’t know if winning out does enough.
17. Central Michigan (17)
Will pretty much always stay in this range unless he loses. The team is solid and he is a good coach, but I think everyone knows when push comes to shove the big guns like Notre Dame, Florida, etc slightly above him would roll. Has a chance to be the G5 team, but not an at large.
18. USC (12)
The loss to Wisconsin makes this an uphill battle now to get into the CFP. The SEC is so deep that there are so few spots for non SEC teams to get in with an at large. Two losses is an auto out, one could leave him in the same spot he was last year.
19. Miami (19)
Unlike other early loss teams, Miami hasn’t really moved up. The SDSU win was maybe close enough to keep people doubting. The 76th ranked schedule to date as a power 4 team isn’t helping matters. A big game with Florida State incoming will make or break his season. A loss and it will be hard to climb back, a win could catapult him inside the top 15.
20. NC State (NR)
Unfortunately being ranked could be short lived, as he lost to Clemson over the weekend. It took a long time for people to believe the undefeated start, it could take them a while to get him back inside the top 25.
21. South Florida (20)
I have admittedly had him outside the top 25 lately. Opting for Tulane from the American with a slightly better resume, and this week FAU with some more flash. But all 3 roughly in the same area. With big games looming against both teams, USF could take care of business and virtually eliminate their conference brethren from having a chance at the CFP.
22. Tulane (24)
As mentioned, I opted for them to be slightly above. But at this point the inter AAC rankings feel a bit meaningless as only the conference champion has a shot at the CFP, and a decent chance only and undefeated conference champion.
23. Louisville (13)
The season has spiraled in recent weeks, and as this is being written he dropped another game to Boston College. The CFP hopes are gone, time to just try to get back into the top 25.
24. Cincinnati (23)
Will likely drop out after losing 2 straight games at the end of the week. A huge matchup with Colorado now only seems important for one side as the CFP and Big 12 title seems out of reach for Cincy, but I think everyone knows how bad Cincy wants that one.
25. North Carolina (NR)
Back for the first time in a while as he has been rolling off wins. The ACC is a battle at the top, could find his way into the conference title and by default the CFP.
On the outside
Florida Atlantic-If he can beat USF I could see him hopping up inside the top 20. Has to win the AAC for any of it to really matter.
Iowa State-No marquee wins to date but a 1 loss power 4 team that is dangerous. The good news, he has a couple upcoming chances for marquee wins with 4 Q1 games still on the schedule.
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