In the Mountain West, it’s not always about playoff glory — sometimes it’s about clawing back to respectability and positioning yourself for a bowl bid. That’s exactly what’s on the line in Week 7, as Fresno State and Colorado State square off in a matchup of two teams desperate to find momentum.
Fresno State comes in at 1-3, fresh off a much-needed win at Hawai’i. Coach oldmanwobbles is still trying to steady the ship in his second season.
Colorado State sits at 2-3, but under beercop, the Rams have shown flashes, with wins over Miami (OH) and North Texas before stumbling in conference play.
This game may not have national implications, but in the Mountain West it’s a crucial early pivot point.
Fresno State Bulldogs Outlook
It’s been a rocky road so far for Fresno State, but their offense has shown signs of life in spurts.
QB E.J. Warner has struggled with turnovers, throwing 6 TDs but also 9 INTs. Ball security will be the key if the Bulldogs want to compete on the road.
RB Rayshon Luke has been the team’s most consistent weapon, posting 380 yards, 4 TDs, and a highlight-reel 95-yard run. His big-play ability makes him the spark Fresno needs.
WR Josiah Ayon leads the team in receiving (197 yards, 1 TD), but drops have plagued him (3 already this year). He’ll need to clean that up to give Warner a reliable option.
Defensively, the Bulldogs are allowing 24 PPG — not terrible, but their inability to control tempo (just 8:39 TOP per game) leaves the defense on the field too long.
Colorado State Rams Outlook
The Rams are 2-3 but have been more competitive than the record suggests.
QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has been busy, throwing 1,279 yards, 10 TDs, and 6 INTs on 157 attempts. He’s the centerpiece of CSU’s attack, but turnovers have hurt.
RB Justin Marshall has struggled to break through, with 155 yards and 2 TDs across five games. He needs to provide balance to avoid forcing everything on Fowler-Nicolosi’s arm.
WR Jordan Ross is the go-to guy in the passing game, with 229 yards and a TD. His YAC ability (110 yards after catch) makes him the primary chain-mover.
Defensively, CSU is allowing 25.2 PPG, but their strength lies in controlling possession. They average 15:27 TOP per game, nearly doubling Fresno’s. If they can dominate time of possession, they can wear the Bulldogs down.
Key Matchups to Watch
Warner vs. Fowler-Nicolosi: Both QBs have struggled with turnovers. The one who protects the ball will give their team the upper hand.
Luke vs. Marshall: Fresno’s RB has been explosive, while CSU’s has been quiet. Whichever back can establish consistency could swing momentum.
Possession Battle: Fresno bleeds time of possession, while CSU thrives on it. This clash of styles may decide who controls the flow of the game.
Coaching Battle
oldmanwobbles is still searching for traction in the NDL, with stops at Buffalo, Liberty, and now Fresno. His record reflects the grind of trying to build competitive mid-tier programs, but his Bulldogs showed fight in their road win at Hawai’i.
beercop is one of the league’s grizzled veterans. Across nearly two dozen seasons, he’s had a little of everything — from bowl appearances to brutal losing campaigns. Now at CSU, he’s aiming to carve out stability in the Mountain West.
Both coaches know what it’s like to battle uphill, which makes this one as much about grit as talent.
Prediction
Neither team is flashy, and both QBs have been turnover-prone. But the Rams’ ability to control tempo and keep their defense fresh may be the deciding factor. Fresno has the better home-run hitter in Luke, but unless Warner suddenly finds consistency, it’s hard to trust them on the road.
[b]Projected Score: Colorado State 27, Fresno State 20
The Rams grind out a win at home, leaning on Fowler-Nicolosi’s arm and possession dominance, while Fresno continues to show flashes but struggles to put it all together.
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